It has been well documented that this summer could reshape the league in a style that more closely resembles NBA2K than reality. The player movement era comes to a head this summer with mega-stars Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard entering free agency, as well as superstar Kyrie Irving. Additionally, the looming Anthony Davis trade saga casts a shadow over the entire league.
In preparation for the potential exodus of the formerly named players from their current teams, four big-market franchises forged enough cap space to become viable and attractive suitors. The Knicks, Clippers and now the Nets are in position to sign two max free agents, while the Lakers can sign a max-level co-star for LeBron James.
With the illustrious franchises of Hollywood and the Big Apple in position to pair not only two superstars, but two of the top three basketball players in the world, the formation of a new super-team (or two) has become the expectation. But what if the dream of a new super-team is an illusion? If Durant, Leonard and Irving decide to join different teams: could the summer of 2019 represent the end of the superteam era?
Allow me to explain. Despite the fact that the Knicks, Nets and Clippers brilliantly positioned themselves to sign two max free agents, none appear likely to do so. With the news that Irving prefers the Nets, the Durant-Irving duo on the Knicks grows less likely by the day. Leonard, on the verge of an NBA title, has probably locked himself into re-signing with the Raptors – if not, he’s almost certain to sign with the Clippers.
I started thinking about what the league could look like next season if we accept these rumors as truth, and a common theme emerged. With each of the A-list free agents linked to different teams – and none of those teams being LeBron’s Lakers – we could witness the end of the super-team era this summer.
First of all, we must define a “super-team”. By my definition, a super-team requires having multiple elite NBA players. To be one of these “elite” players, multiple All-Star game appearances is not sufficient. These players are perennial All-NBA 1st team candidates – the league’s true difference makers. Two weeks ago, I wrote about the three elite tiers of the NBA and outlined my top fifteen players. By my standards, a super-team would require multiple players from one of my top two tiers.
Therefore, the only super-teams this decade were the Curry-Durant Warriors, LeBron-Wade-Bosh Heat, LeBron-Kyrie Cavaliers, and Durant-Westbrook Thunder. I don’t consider the pre-Durant Warriors as a super-team because they were homegrown talents and I don’t believe that Klay Thompson or Draymond Green were great enough individual players to merit super-team status. (I could quibble and argue that only the Heat and Warriors truly fit the requirements due to Westbrook and Irving’s limitations as an alpha-dog, but that would be nitpicking.)
Now that we’ve defined a super-team, let’s break it down. Here are my top nine NBA players (based on my tiers) and their most likely team next season.
Tiers 1 and 2
- Kevin Durant – Knicks
- Kawhi Leonard – Raptors/Clippers
- LeBron James – Lakers
- Stephen Curry – Warriors
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – Bucks
- James Harden – Rockets
- Nikola Jokic – Nuggets
- Joel Embiid – 76ers
- Anthony Davis – Pelicans
You don’t find All-Star teammates until you dive into my third tier of players, who are upper-echelon All-Stars, but are not good enough to be the best player on a championship caliber team.
Tier 3
- Damian Lillard – Trail Blazers
- Kyrie Irving – Nets
- Paul George/Russell Westbrook – Thunder
- Klay Thompson/Draymond Green – Warriors
What exactly does any of this mean? I have several takeaways.
- Each of the top nine players could be spread across nine different franchises. This scenario would result in the most competitively balanced league in quite some time. Gone are the days when the 12-0 Warriors met the 12-1 Cavaliers in the 2017 NBA Finals. Instead, the tightly contested slug-fests between the Raptors-76ers, Trail Blazers-Nuggets, and Raptors-Bucks could become the norm across the league.
- The wild card is, of course, Davis. Any one of a half-dozen teams could swoop in, acquire the All-NBA star and create a super-team. (However, Pelicans GM, David Griffin, seems intent on riding into next season with Davis on his roster; he hopes Davis could reconsider his future in New Orleans after playing alongside the tantalizing addition of Zion Williamson.)
- Despite being one of two teams with teammates in my top-15 rankings, Oklahoma City is undoubtedly not a super-team. We have two abysmal postseason appearances worth of evidence that Oklahoma City is not a championship contender with their current roster construction.
- Anyone who thinks Golden State is just going to fall apart once Durant leaves this off-season is foolish. The Curry-Thompson back-court remains the best in the league by light-years. They obviously won’t be as dominant as they were from 2017-2019 with Durant, but they will likely still be the title favorites.
- You may have noticed a slight contradiction when discussing Irving. He’s in my third tier, which should make him unworthy of being a super-team caliber player. However, I also stated that a Durant-Irving duo would create a super-team. I believe after winning a championship as a second-option (and excelling in that role), Irving has earned that distinction, where Westbrook, George and Lillard have not.
Stars typically only change teams in free agency to play with other stars. LeBron teamed up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2010 and Kyrie Irving (and the inevitable addition of Kevin Love) in 2014, while Durant infamously joined Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in 2016.
The notable exception occurred last off-season, when LeBron signed with a young Lakers team devoid of a co-star. LeBron likely expected one of last summer’s free agents (namely, Paul George) to join him, but he took that risk by essentially signing on his own.
Now in 2019, Durant is expected to follow in LeBron’s footsteps once again by joining the Knicks, a perennial embarrassment of a franchise. It could be an even bigger risk than LeBron joining the Lakers. That’s what makes it hard to believe Durant would sign in New York without a co-star, even if its Kemba Walker instead of Kyrie Irving.
In fact, it is highly likely that one of these teams will pair an A-list caliber star with a B-lister, such as Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Tobias Harris or even Khris Middleton, creating a very good, potentially championship contending team – but that’s not exactly a superteam.
Based on my definition of a super-team, there are only a few possibilities for a super-team in 2019-20. I’ve outlined each in ascending order of likeliness.
Durant and Leonard team up: This only happens with the Clippers, as Leonard has shown no desire to play in New York. There has been some chatter on Twitter about the potential of Durant stealing the Los Angeles spotlight from LeBron, but it’s all been hypothetical. There’s been no indication that Durant is seriously considering the Clippers.
Durant re-signs in Golden State: Considering the sheer volume of the Knicks rumors and the state of the Warriors locker room, there is very little chance Durant returns to the Warriors next season. However, a Finals defeat to Toronto, proving his value to the Warriors, could crack the door open for a short-term return to Golden State.
Trade for Davis: This is easily the most likely path to a super-team in 2019-20. The Lakers have aggressively pursued a trade for Davis, but have not been able to seal the deal. Right now, the Lakers are the only team with a sense of urgency in pursuing Davis. However, if the Knicks, Nets or Clippers sign either Durant or Leonard, they will seriously look at moving their young talent and assets for Davis.
As I’ve outlined, there is a very real chance that the NBA could lack a super-team in 2019-20. This would be quite refreshing coming off three seasons of league domination by Golden State. However, it would be a stretch to say that this could mark the end of the super-team era.
Next summer, Anthony Davis will become a free agent and finally control his own path. There’s no telling how Durant, Leonard and Irving sign for this summer; they could easily sign a 1 year deal with a player option, setting themselves up to enter free agency again in 2020.
There’s no telling which star player becomes disgruntled in the next twelve months, either. Perhaps Karl-Anthony Towns grows tired of losing in Minnesota, Philadelphia decides to break up the Joel Embiid-Ben Simmons duo, or maybe LeBron decides enough is enough with the Lakers’ drama and asks for a trade. Who knows with this league?
There might not be a super-team next year if Durant and Irving join opposing New York City teams or if the Pelicans hold onto Davis for a few more months. There is also a possibility all three of those players are members of the Knicks in four weeks. If there is one thing we know with the NBA, it’s that everything can change overnight.
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