Evaluating the Pelicans’ Options with Anthony Davis: Part II

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported the Pelicans are ramping up trade talks regarding superstar bigman, Anthony Davis. The timing of the increased haste makes sense on some level; the NBA draft is now only one week away and New Orleans would like control of any potential acquired draft picks.

In another sense, the timing is a bit confusing because many people, including myself, believed that Pelican’s executive VP of basketball operations, David Griffin, intended to enter next season with Davis on the roster. Once New Orleans secured the first overall selection in next week’s draft – the rights to Zion Williamson – many thought the Pelicans would try to resell Davis on a vastly improved franchise. However, if Sports Illustrated’s feature on Davis’ agent taught us anything, it’s that Davis and Rich Paul want out of New Orleans now.

According to another league insider, the Athletic’s Shams Charania, Davis has reduced his ideal destinations to the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks. The Pelicans are under no obligations to fulfill Davis’ demands; they will make the deal that is best for themselves, as they should.

In regards to other potential teams interested in acquiring Davis, essentially every team in the league would want Davis on their team, but only a few have the assets required to spike New Orleans’ interest.

I wrote Part 1 of “Evaluating the Pelicans’ Options with Anthony Davis” way back in February, about a week before the trade deadline. Most of the same teams are still involved, with the exception of Philadelphia. The Lakers and Celtics have already begun trade talks with the Pelicans, while the Knicks, Nets and Clippers will likely get involved soon. There’s also a team still playing that could have some serious interest in the uni-browed star.

Let’s start with the front-runners.

Los Angeles Lakers

No team is more desperate to acquire Davis’ talents than the Lakers, which means New Orleans can extract maximum value from them in a trade. Wojnarowski reports that the Lakers’ current offer is based around Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and the 4th pick in the draft. So far, they have shown a reluctance to include Kyle Kuzma in trade discussions, which is odd considering he’s arguably the least valuable asset of the four.

There’s not much to say about the Lakers that hasn’t been said already: the Lakers really want Davis and Davis really wants to be in Los Angeles, but New Orleans is luke-warm at best on the Lakers’ assets. It could be as simple as the Lakers including Kuzma in the deal, or New Orleans could blackball the franchise entirely.

However these negotiations shake out, the Lakers will be involved until the bitter end.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics couldn’t engage in discussions for Davis due to a weird contract rule, but they are now firmly involved in negotiations in some capacity. They still can’t officially acquire Davis until after July 1st, however.

Davis’ camp has stated numerous times that they have no intentions of re-signing in Boston should they trade for him. Additionally, Boston’s plans of pairing Davis with Irving are likely dead.

Yet, the Celtics could pretty easily acquire the superstar if they wanted. Jayson Tatum is largely viewed as the premier trade chip across all the potential Davis suitors. Boston could also include veterans like Marcus Smart and draft picks, including this years #14, #20 and #22 overall selections and a coveted future Grizzlies pick.

Wait. Why would Boston part ways with a 21 year-old rising All-Star in Tatum and additional assets when their chances of retaining Davis are slim at best? Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. (Although, the circumstances could change if Leonard leaves Toronto after a Finals appearance/championship.)

There’s also this theory from ESPN/the Ringer’s Ryen Russillo, of which I agree:

Never underestimate Ainge wanting to make this more difficult/costly for the Lakers.

— Russillo (@ryenarussillo) June 12, 2019

New York Knicks

The Knicks appear to be slowly backing out of the Davis sweepstakes. According to Ian Begley, New York’s front office is growing divided on parting with assets in exchange for Davis, citing the failure of the Carmelo Anthony trade in 2011.

Additionally, no team’s future was thrown into disarray in the wake of Durant’s Achilles injury more than the Knicks . Durant going to the Knicks was once a forgone conclusion; now, the best case scenario is that the Knicks pay Durant a max salary for a rehab year. Durant’s inability to play next season could impact their ability to find a second star. The Knicks may have a difficult time selling Davis on a future in New York beyond 2019, despite the fact that Davis listed the Knicks as one of his two desired teams.

Furthermore, the Knicks simply don’t have the assets to compete with Boston, Brooklyn, or either Los Angeles team. Their young players (Kevin Knox, Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina and Mitchell Robinson) fall considerably short of the competition. They do own a plethora of draft picks, including all of their own future firsts and Dallas’ unprotected first rounders in 2021 and 2023 (the latter of which could be the fabled double draft).

New Orleans will command better proven assets than New York can offer, so the Knicks are likely out on Davis unless they somehow sign two max-salary free agents.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets were not featured in Part 1 a few months ago, but times have changed for the Big Apple’s little brother franchise. A mildly surprising playoff run and the emergence of All-Star D’Angelo Russell boosted the value of Brooklyn’s young players. More importantly, the Nets emerged as the front-runners for Kyrie Irving in free agency. That speculation was heightened by Irving’s recent switch to the agency group ROC Nation, who have several ties to the Nets organization.

The Nets have devoted several years to developing a culture of player development and team chemistry. We literally just spent a year witnessing Irving tear apart a Boston team that had similar values. Why would they risk bringing in a volatile player such as Irving, who some would not even consider an upgrade over Russell?

Brooklyn is clearing $18M in additional salary cap space for July, which gives the Nets $46M in salary cap space to sign a max free agent and even retain restricted free agent D'Angelo Russell. Without Russell, the Nets have two max salary slots. https://t.co/diOiBOkhOZ

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 6, 2019

Teams do not dump multiple draft picks – especially an asset-hogging team like Brooklyn – unless they have some type of inside knowledge. Call it whatever you want – business, tampering, rumors – the Nets truly believe they can sign not only Irving, but another superstar. After the devastating injury to Kevin Durant, Brooklyn will likely turn their attention towards Davis or Kawhi Leonard.

A package including Caris LaVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jarrett Allen and future draft picks could entice New Orleans. Another potential trade package could be a sign-and-trade with D’Angelo Russell, but that is my own personal theory. (It was immediately shut down by the first smart NBA Twitter person I consulted, but let it be known that I think it’s at least conceivable.)

Whenever, let’s say, eccentric people like Irving are involved, things can change in the blink of an eye. He may change his mind tomorrow and start walking around Manhattan wearing blue and orange clothes. In all seriousness, Brooklyn will be big game hunting this summer. If you’re a fan of a competitor, you should feel threatened by the Nets.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have tons of young assets that could intrigue New Orleans, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Landry Shamet, Montrezl Harrell and Jerome Robinson. They also own valuable draft capital, notably the Heat’s unprotected 2021 first round pick. Similar to Boston’s situation with Tatum, the Clippers cannot make a deal happen without including their prized asset in Gilgeous-Alexander. However, the Clippers are unwilling to deal the young point guard according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks.

Things could change drastically if the Clippers sign a star free agent this summer (hello, Kawhi). Los Angeles would almost certainly reconsider dealing the 20 year-old point guard to pair two of the games best five to seven players. We’ll have to wait until after July 1st to see if the Clippers are serious bidders for Davis.

Toronto Raptors

Believe it or not, Raptors czar Masaih Ujiri may not be done wheelin’ and dealin’ for superstars yet. It’s hard to imagine Ujiri dealing key members of a championship team, but he already traded the face of the franchise last summer.

This entire premise completely revolves around Kawhi Leonard’s free agency status. Kawhi has three options this summer:

1. Re-sign on a short term 1+1 deal.
2. Re-sign on a long-term deal.
3. Leave in free agency

The future of the Raptors outside of Kawhi is built to last. Their veteran core is aging; Kyle Lowry is 33 years old, Marc Gasol is 34, and Serge Ibaka is 29. Norman Powell is the only Raptor under contract beyond next season. That would make a short, 1+1 type of contract ideal, but Kawhi’s injury history with his quad likely rules out option #1. Although, if Durant earns a max contract despite an Achilles injury, maybe Kawhi considers the short term deal.

The Raptors long-term questions with this roster likely rule out option #2. Ujiri has proven he can consistently improve the roster without top draft picks, but Kawhi would be placing a lot of faith in Ujiri by signing a four to five year extension in Toronto.

Suddenly, despite a magical championship run, Toronto is in a real danger of losing their star player. So, could Ujiri make a trade that would entice Kawhi to stay long-term?

I first heard this theory floated on the Ringer NBA Show: LeBron is already 34 years old; Kevin Durant is out next season and could take two years to fully recover, if he ever does. Kawhi has spent the past two months that the NBA runs through Kawhi without those two on the floor (and maybe even with them). Pairing Kawhi and Davis would give Toronto two of the league’s five best players, creating a virtually unstoppable duo that would reign supreme in the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future.

At the trade deadline, I listed Toronto’s potential package (Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, future draft picks) as the third-best available. In the subsequent months, Siakam has emerged as the second best player on a championship team. In Game 1 of the Finals, Siakam poured in a sensational 32 point, 8 rebound, 5 assist performance. Perhaps New Orleans views Siakam as the prized possession ahead of Tatum, Gilgeous-Alexander, Ingram or anyone in this draft.

While trading for Kawhi came at no risk for Ujiri and the Raptors, trading for Davis before Kawhi hits free agency would be the greatest gamble of Ujiri’s career. Toronto could find itself spending a significant portion of the 2020’s competing in the NBA’s Tankapolooza, but they could have a handful of championship rings to show for it.

Dark Horses?

It’s hard to envision another team swooping in at this point. There has been talks that New Orleans wants a third team to be included, likely to reroute the Lakers #4 overall pick for a different asset. The Pelicans want to pry Bradley Beal from Washington, but that’s going to be a challenge. For one, Washington still doesn’t have a GM and Wojnarowski announced the Wizards plan to pursue Masai Ujiri DURING HIS NBA CHAMPIONSHIP ACCEPTANCE SPEECH. Secondly, Beal is a damn good player and will cost more than just the fourth overall pick in a fairly weak draft.

Denver has been floated as a hypothetical dark horse contender for Davis, but I have a hard time believing the Nuggets are going to give up on their young core so soon. They came within a couple baskets of making the Western Conference Finals despite having almost zero playoff experience on the roster. Denver would need to part with Jamal Murray, who emerged as a verified playoff performer at only 22 years old. The appeal of a Anthony Davis-Nikola Jokic frontcourt is compelling, but the chances of Davis re-signing in Denver are next to zero.

Outside of Denver, it’s hard to even find hypothetical suitors. A few teams have the assets to potentially make a deal happen, but have no motivation to consider a Davis trade. Minnesota could offer Karl-Anthony Towns and the Kings could offer De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield, but those don’t bring either team closer to title contention. Portland could theoretically offer McCollum, but due to the recent passing of their owner, the Blazers aren’t really in a position to make any franchise altering transactions.

The one team that maybe fits the bill is Oklahoma City, who could offer one of their two stars. Considering their playoff failures post-Durant, Sam Presti has the motivation to consider shuffling the deck. However, George is borderline untouchable after a 3rd-place finish in MVP voting and New Orleans would not want anything to do with Russell Westbrook’s contract. We’ve seen Presti create something out of nothing before (after all, that’s how OKC got Paul George in the first place), so maybe he has another trick up his sleeve.

Final Thoughts

Here’s roughly how I would rank the potential hauls for New Orleans (it changes everytime I think about it):

1. Lakers 3-way: Beal, Ingram
2. Celtics: Tatum, Smart, picks
3. Raptors: Siakam, Anunoby, future picks
4. Lakers: Ingram, Lonzo, Kuzma, #4 pick
5. (large gap; I’d stop considering deals below this)
6. Nets: LaVert, Dinwiddie, Allen
7. Clippers: SGA, Harrell, Shamet, Heat 2021 first round pick
8. Nets sign-and-trade: Russell, Allen

The Davis trade saga feels a little different than ones of recent stars. Paul George, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler all wound up on teams very few people could have expected, but there’s an aura of finality with Davis. It feels like the season finale of a drama series, where a higher power has specifically scripted everything that has lead to this one, definitive moment.

Davis’ looming, inevitable trade request from New Orleans always made teams hesitant to part with assets that could be saved for Davis. For example, Boston certainly could have had Kawhi, George or Butler if they wanted, but they were committed to saving their pieces for Davis.

The thought why trade for George when we can have Davis in a year? shadowed over the trade of every single NBA All-Star in the past 2-3 years. Davis’ transcendent talent is simply on another level than those players. Although Kawhi is actually a better player, his trade value wasn’t nearly as high after missing essentially all of last season with an injury.

Thirdly, Davis’ agent Rich Paul carries greater power and influence than any agent in recent memory. There’s no way for me, a complete outsider, to quantify how much Klutch Sports’ presence affects negotiations, but I’ve read and heard enough stories to never underestimate them. Paul and LeBron have always dreamt bigger and bolder than anyone else, who’s to stand in their way now?

I always try to predict sports outcomes by what I can visually picture in my head. It’s a wildly inaccurate model and often leads me to making stupid predictions. I should listen to my gut more often, though. This strategy told me that OKC would not make the Western Conference Finals and that Milwaukee would not make the NBA Finals, yet I ignored both because I was rooting for both outcomes. (Side note: I can’t picture Durant actually going to the Knicks, for whatever that’s worth.)

As far as Davis, I want him to be traded to the Lakers simply because I am not ready for LeBron’s championship window to close yet. However, when I picture the trade possibilities in my mind, Toronto and Brooklyn seem most likely. This will sound completely insane, but seeing Davis in a Toronto Raptors uniform just feels right.

Well, there you have it. I’m predicting Anthony Davis will be Raptor or Net, but rooting for him to be a Laker. Start placing your bets now, people.