Oct 06 2019
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Week 4 is traditionally a trap week and it lived up to its reputation. Scott and I shared three picks and got burned on all of them.

Jameis Winston and the Bucs shredded the near-10 point home favorite Rams. Teddy Two Gloves game managed his way to another Saints win as my lord and savior Kellen Moore shit his pants. Perhaps most surprising, Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown as the Chiefs won but did not cover against Detroit.

Well, things can only get better from here. As usual, we are using the Vegas Insider consensus lines.

Last week: Scott 1-4; Nolan 1-4

Season: Scott 4-11; Nolan 7-8

Scott’s Picks

Tennessee -3 vs. Buffalo

This goes against everything I know about the Titans. Tennessee is one of those teams that looks great when they are completely counted out, and terrible when they are treated with any shred of respect. So naturally the Bills will probably pull out a 10-3 win, Mariota will go 12-for-23 with no TDs and everyone will be all doom and gloom for another week. I hope I’m wrong, but I fear I’m right. Nolan, I apologize in advance for the 50-plus times they will replay the Music City Miracle.

New England -16 at Washington

You honestly couldn’t make this line high enough for me to not take it. Colt McCoy is the starting QB for the Washington football team. That speaks for itself. Hell, the Pats defense might cover this line by themselves. This could get out of hand really, really quick, and nobody outside of Boston should watch one second of it. Also, can anybody plausibly explain why the Pats schedule has been so easy? It’s infuriating.

New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay

We aren’t really buying that Tampa is good, right? I know I threw them under the bus last week, but I think that was more on an indictment on the Rams, who looked godawful. Jameis Winston is kind of like the Titans. Just when you are ready to give up on him, he makes you pause. But once you believe in him it’s destined to fall apart. He has two of the 10 best receivers in football, but I can’t bet on him to go into the dome and cover this. I’ll take the Saints by a touchdown here. 

LA Chargers -5.5 vs. Denver

This Denver team is an embarrassment. I feel sorry for them honestly. They are 0-4 and staring down the barrel of 0-5. I think this is the week we get to see Melvin Gordon. LA has absolutely no home-field advantage, because LA doesn’t even really want one football team, much less two. But I just don’t think Flacco is going to get it done. This feels like a big day for both Charger running backs and an easy breezy win. 

Green Bay +3.5 at Dallas 

Both of these teams are coming off of disappointing losses. This is the best game of the week. I think both of these teams are really good, but I’m not totally sold. But I’m more sure of Green Bay being good. That defense can be great. And Dallas looked abysmal offensively against the Saints. Plus, it’s Aaron freaking Rodgers. I’ll take the points and bank on the Packers. 
Here’s to another 1-4 week. Thank god I don’t actually gamble.

Nolan’s Picks

Buffalo +3 at Tennessee

One of the first LMU baseball games I worked with Scott, he went on and on about the Music City Miracle for like five minutes, calling it “one of the best sports moments of his life” or some crap. I was barely a year old when it happened, but even I would have had the common sense to call it a forward pass. The Music City Miracle was a hoax.

Back to 2019. The Bills defense turned Tom Brady into, well, Josh Allen, who’s apparently all set to start this week. I can only imagine the what they’ll turn Marcus Mariota into. I think the Bills can win a close, low-scoring game, so I’ll take the points.

New England -16 at Washington

It pains me to pick against the greatest name in sports history, Colt McCoy, but how does Washington plan to score a single point this week? Jay Gruden isn’t even pretending to have a plan anymore. I’m not overthinking this one.

Chicago -5.5 vs Oakland (in London)

Mitchell Trubisky is out for the game, but are we sure that’s a bad thing for the Bears? I love that the Raiders are coming off a win because I think that skewed the line in the Bears favor. The David Montgomery breakout game is coming; this could be the week.

Baltimore -3 at Pittsburgh

Don’t let a win over the Bengals fool you: the Steelers aren’t good. Baltimore’s defense isn’t the elite unit it has been historically, but it’s not like Mason Rudolph will be able to take advantage of it. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson should destroy this Steelers defense. Hollywood Brown has been quiet for a couple weeks, he’s due to explode. The Ravens rank 7th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, while the Steelers rank 21st. That gap is worth more than this line, so give me the Ravens.

Cleveland +4 at San Francisco

First of all, what a terrific game for Monday Night Football! It’s definitely a significant upgrade over last week’s Bengals-Steelers.

Secondly, I’m just not buying the 49ers. They were lucky to escape with a win after turning the ball over five times against Pittsburgh. Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and co. will surely take advantage if Jimmy G plays like Jimmy Gee-whiz again. (I’m sorry that pun was abominable. I’ll do better next time.) We’ve seen two elite wide receivers break out in each of the last two weeks (Mike Evans and Davante Adams), it could be Odell Beckham’s turn in Week 5.

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