The NBA Teams with the Worst Draft Luck

In this time without sports, we’ve been forced to look backwards both for new content and entertainment.

I’ve been enjoying The Ringer‘s “ReDraftables” series, where they are re-drafting every NBA draft since 1996. I thought about doing my own re-drafts, but I like to think I’m above stealing content. (Looking at you, Bleacher Report.)

I decided to look at the past twenty NBA drafts from a different perspective. Instead of looking at the players that teams should have taken, I wanted to see the players that teams never got the chance to take. I went through every NBA draft since 2000 and took note of each time a star or high-quality role player was drafted one pick before a team could draft them.

I used some math to help calculate my rankings. I found the difference in win shares between the “just missed” player and the one the team ended up with. For example, LeBron has generated 236.1 win shares, while Darko Miličić only accumulated 7.1 in his career. That means the Pistons lost out on 229 win shares, by far the largest of the past twenty years. I’m calling these “Lost Win Shares” or LSW. I stopped calculating win shares after the 2013 draft. Recent draftees haven’t yet reached their ceilings and win shares are a bit funky in small sample sizes.

There are a couple clarifications. If a team just missed a star, but drafted one of their own, then it doesn’t necessarily make the list. So when the Raptors landed Chris Bosh instead of Carmelo Anthony, I’m not going to feel sorry for Toronto. Also, draft day trades make some selections a bit hazy. I stuck to the order that Basketball Reference listed and included notes when necessary.

My rankings are a combination of Lost Win Shares, circumstances at the time of each draft, and future projections for post-2013 players. I also factored in how teams have benefitted from good luck — looking at you, Cleveland.

1. Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Misses

• Al Horford #3, 2007
• Russell Westbrook #4, 2008
• Blake Griffin #1, 2009
• Taj Gibson #26, 2009
• Luka Dončić #3, 2018
• Zion Williamson #1, 2019
• HM: LeBron James #1, 2003

No team has narrowly missed out on more star talent than the Grizz. But the reason we, or at least I, may have not realized how often the Grizzlies have gotten screwed is because they have drafted so well during this time. Instead of Al Horford, Memphis drafted Mike Conley and instead of Russell Westbrook, they drafted Kevin Love (although they immediately traded him). After Blake Griffin went first, Memphis keenly drafted James Harden — wait, no. They took Hasheem Thabeet, my bad. But even after missing out on Luka and Zion, Memphis still landed Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant. The next team on this list should be taking notes.

Did I mention that the Grizzlies 2003 pick was top-1 protected and landed at #2, meaning they were a ping pong ball away from LeBron? Well, not exactly, but it sounds more way more cool that way.

2. Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets

Notable Misses

• Dwight Howard #1, 2004
• Chris Paul #4, 2005
• LaMarcus Aldridge #2, 2006
• Anthony Davis #1, 2012

Charlotte must have committed some royal sins to be a part of the NBA”s expansion process in 2004. Their Pre-2013 LSW total of 416.7 ranks first by nearly 100 win shares (equivalent to what Steph Curry has accumulated so far in his career). Charlotte wasn’t even a franchise for the first four drafts of this era. While changing their name from the Bobcats back to the Hornets in 2014 has lessened their bad luck, it’s not like much has improved for the franchise. They have yet to win 50 games or reach the second round of the playoffs since joining the league in 2004.

3. New York Knicks

Notable Misses

• Kevin Love #5, 2008
• Stephen Curry #7, 2009
• Nikola Vučević #16, 2011
• Ja Morant #2, 2019

Everyone knows the Knicks came within one pick of landing Curry in 2009 and everyone knows the Knicks wanted him badly. In fact, Curry not only thought he would be a Knick, he wanted to be one. So of course Curry gets drafted seventh and his breakout performance came in Madison Square Garden in 2013. The Knicks had the best odds to win the 2019 lottery and land Zion in the 2019 NBA draft.. So of course the Knicks got the third pick in a two-player draft and miss both Zion and Morant.

Here’s the bright side, Knicks fans: you know what — or should I say “who” — is cursing your franchise. The bad news: he still owns the team.

4. New Orleans Hornets/Pelicans

Notable Misses

• J.J. Redick #11, 2006
• Thaddeus Young #12, 2007
• George Hill #26, 2008
• Paul George #10, 2010
• Andre Drummond #9, 2012

New Orleans hasn’t really missed out on any stars, aside from Paul George, but some high quality role players would’ve done wonders for the franchise. In 2007-08, they won 56 games and made the second round of the playoffs — imagine if they had added J.J. Redick to that squad instead of…. Hilton Armstrong in 2006. Chris Paul’s New Orleans tenure ended disappointingly in 2011, but it could have been so different if the draft had gone slightly differently once or twice.

Similar to Charlotte, changing their name from the Hornets to the Pelicans has changed their draft luck. They won the Anthony Davis lottery just before rightfully returning the Hornets name to Charlotte and, of course, just won the Zion lottery last year.

5. Sacramento Kings

Notable Misses

• Joakim Noah #9, 2007
• James Harden #3, 2009
• Jamal Murray #7, 2016
• Deandre Ayton #1, 2018

It’s not a true list about cursed teams or poorly-run franchises until the Sacramento Kings are in the top-five. Harden has already accumulated 104 more win shares than the Kings’ selection in 2009, even though Tyreke Evans won Rookie of the Year. Sacramento narrowly missed out on an all-Kentucky backcourt of Murray and De’Aaron Fox, which would’ve been my buddy Alex’s dream.

Including Ayton seems premature because of Marvin Bagley’s injury-plagued sophomore season, but it bears mentioning. Stay tuned for the next article where I address who the Kings should’ve drafted over both those guys. (Hint: his name rhymes with Duka Lončić.)

6. Brooklyn/New Jersey Nets

Notable Misses

• Shane Battier #6, 2001
• Tayshaun Prince #23, 2002
• Boris Diaw #21, 2003
• Rajon Rondo #21, 2006

The Nets could’ve had a dynasty in the early 2000’s if a couple things had gone differently. The main one being that the Shaq/Kobe Lakers and Duncan Spurs never existed. After consecutive Finals losses in 2002 and 2003, They pushed the 2004 Pistons to seven games; the Lakers lost in five.

The Nets never made it out of the second round and lost to the eventual Eastern Conference champion in 2004-2007. If the Nets could’ve added Battier or more specifically Prince (the Nets traded their 2001 pick in a package for Richard Jefferson), they likely would have returned to the Finals during Vince Carter’s tenure.

7. Utah Jazz

Notable Misses

• David West #18, 2003
• Al Jefferson #15, 2004
• Jameer Nelson #20, 2004
• Jeff Teague #19, 2009
• Klay Thompson #11, 2011

I would not have guessed the Jazz would’ve been stiffed this many times in the past twenty years. They ranked second by a considerable margin in pre-2013 lost win shares. Normally, that would be indicative of a perennial lottery team, but the Jazz have been a solid franchise. During this time, they made eleven playoff appearances and only had two seasons with less than 30 wins.

Utah has been a staple in the doldrums of mediocrity — teams too good to be in the lottery, but not good enough to advance in the playoffs. This range has burned the Jazz time and time again. When they finally suck enough to enter the lottery, they miss Klay Thompson by a single pick. If I had to bet, I’d say the Jazz are cursed for either stealing New Orleans’ team name or from Karl Malone’s biceps.

8. Golden State Warriors

Notable Misses

• Richard Jefferson #13, 2001
• Channing Frye #8, 2005
• Rudy Gay #8, 2006
• DeMarcus Cousins #5, 2010
• Damian Lillard #6, 2012
• Dejounte Murray #29 2016

Golden State’s recent dominance overshadows how terrible they were for the forty years prior to the Splash Bros era. They made a grand total of one playoff appearance from 1995 through 2012, hence the Bay Area’s deification of the 2007 “We Believe” Warriors. Gay could have turned those Warriors into a legitimate threat in the West and surely the spry, version of Boogie Cousins in 2010 would’ve been more impactful than the 2019 version.

I don’t know how swapping Dame for Harrison Barnes plays out, but it’s fascinating as hell. It eliminates a key part of the Death Lineup; say what you will about Barnes, but he was an excellent fit in the Warriors switch-everything defense and a solid three-and-D wing. The situation most likely turns into a Harden-Thunder scenario, and considering Golden State infamously had a giant “FOR SALE” on Steph and Klay during the early 2010’s. Lillard is from Oakland and dominated the league right away (winning ROY over Anthony Davis) — it’s possible the Warriors could have traded Curry and/or Klay and kept Lillard.

The Warriors based on near-misses alone should rank closer to the top-five, but the luck involved with Steph Curry falling past Minnesota not once, but twice more than makes up for missing on Rudy Gay and Dejounte Murray.

9. Chicago Bulls

Notable Misses

• Pau Gasol #3, 2001 
• Yao Ming #1, 2002

If you’ve been watching The Last Dance, you know how excited Bulls GM was to move on from Michael Jordan and start a rebuild. Well folks, building a team through the draft is substantially more difficult than it appears and takes quite a bit of luck.

The Bulls absolutely sucked in the first six years after MJ left, averaging less than 20 wins per season and only cracking 30 wins once. Tim Floyd, the coach Krause groomed to replace Phil Jackson, led the Bulls to a 49-190 record in his three and a quarter seasons.

Chicago’s post-MJ rebuild was a disaster, but landing Pau Gasol instead of Eddy Curry in 2001 could’ve been a game changer, though. However, after the success of the ‘90s and Scottie Pippen’s contract situation, the Bulls were due for some bad luck. Derrick Rose’s knee is still the worst luck in the Bulls past twenty years.

10. Detroit Pistons

Notable Miss

• LeBron James #1, 2003

Only one notable player came within one selection of changing the Pistons franchise, but he might just be the greatest player of all time. The Pistons should have just drafted Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh instead of Darko Miličić in 2003, but what if they had just landed LeBron? The Pistons one title in 2004 suddenly multiplies into three, four, maybe five titles? At the least, their run lasts longer than 2007, when LeBron himself killed their Eastern Conference dynasty for all intents and purposes.

HM: Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Misses

• Andre Iguodala #9, 2004
• Kyle Lowry #24, 2006
• Bradley Beal #3, 2012

While it would be amazing to hypothesize about a LeBron/Iggy duo or a LeBron/Kyrie/Beal trio, I am removing Cleveland from consideration. The Cavs won the LeBron lottery in 2003. They won the lottery in 2011 and got Kyrie Irving. They won the lottery in 2013 and 2014 and moved those picks for Kevin Love. Cleveland has been as lucky as any team draft-wise the past twenty years.

HM: Boston Celtics

Notable Misses

• Mike Conley #4, 2007
• Eric Bledsoe #18, 2010
• Giannis Antetokounmpo #15, 2013

Landing Jeff Green instead of Conley sounds harsh on paper, but they flipped Green for Ray Allen on draft night and won the championship the next season. Bledsoe is basically a bulkier, better version of Avery Bradley, so getting Bledsoe could have prolonged the Celtics’ Big Three era.

The real heartbreaker in the Celtics past two decades of drafts is missing Giannis in 2015. Upon further research, I discovered Boston actually traded up to #13, but took Kelly Olynyk instead. Imagine that: Danny Ainge traded up in the draft for once and still missed. Maybe this is why he’s terrified of trading draft picks. (FWIW: Ainge is a brilliant GM, as evidenced by the Tatum/Fultz decision, but I still enjoy making jokes at his expense.)

HM: Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Misses

• Kevin Martin #26, 2004
• Karl Anthony-Towns #1, 2015
• Ben Simmons #1, 2016

Martin is infamously remembered as the centerpiece of the Thunder’s haul for James Harden, but he averaged over 22 points per game from 2007-2011 and shot nearly 40% from three. Kobe and the Lakers desperately needed someone of Martin’s caliber from 2005-2007. That period was Kobe’s statistical peak, but the Lakers stunk. They missed the playoffs in 2005 and were one-and-done in ‘06 and ‘07.

LA was fortunate to land in consecutive #2 selections from 2015-17, but there was a large drop off in talent from the first pick in 2015 and ‘16. The Lakers were even more fortunate to snag the fourth pick in 2019. Furthermore, they notoriously flipped almost all of these draft picks for Anthony Davis in the summer of 2019, so how unlucky could those picks have been?