Scattered Thoughts: The Post-Bubble NBA

Sooooo, I meant to publish this before the first round of the playoffs started, but I got caught up with work, online classes starting, taking a nap and mowing the lawn so I’m posting it tonight. The past day and a half worth of games did not change any of my predictions, however, even though some were already proven wrong. (Apparently, the law of the universe states that the Magic will win Game 1, not that the Raptors will lose it.)

Portland Trail Blazers

There is only one place to start and that’s with America’s Team: MY Portland Trail Blazers. That’s right. I was here long before it was cool to be here.

For us Dame D.O.L.L.A. fans, his dominance is nothing new, nor unexpected. In the bubble, he’s averaged 37.6 points and 9.6 assists while shooting 43.6% on 12.6 three-point attempts per game. He already averaged 48.8 points, 10.2 assists, and 7.2 rebounds while shooting 57% on 14.3 three-point attempts per game during a six-game stretch earlier this season.

Between Lillard’s historic play, Jusuf Nurkic’s remarkable return amid difficult circumstances off the court, CJ McCollum’s ability to put the team on his back and Carmelo Anthony’s redemption, everything about Portland’s time in Orlando has been incredible. It’s a shame that #DameTime has to end in the first round of the playoffs.

2020-21 Western Conference Outlook

Let me preface what I’m about to say by saying the Grizzlies played well above anybody’s wildest expectations this season and the Suns could not have played any better in Orlando…

The Grizzlies and Suns chances of making the playoffs next season are slim to none.

Let’s take a step back and examine the whole Western Conference playoff picture next season.

• The Lakers, Clippers and Rockets each feature at least one top six player in the league; they aren’t going anywhere.
• The Nuggets have a top-seven or eight player in Nikola Jokic and a talented, young supporting cast; they aren’t going anywhere.
• The Jazz are well coached and consistent as hell; they aren’t going anywhere.
• The Mavericks set the NBA record for offensive rating led by an MVP candidate in Luka Doncic, who is just six months older than Ja Morant; they aren’t going anywhere.
• The Trail Blazers were only in contention for the eight-seed because of Nurkic’s injury (not to mention Zach Collins and Rodney Hood’s); they aren’t going anywhere.

That’s seven teams more or less locked into playoff spots.

Oklahoma City is the one 2019-20 playoff team whose return isn’t all but assured, barring injuries. With a roster led by a 35 year-old Chris Paul and a front office that loves to wheel-and-deal, the Thunder could easily take a step backwards next year.

Oh, and let’s not forget that the (still) five-time reigning Western Conference champion Golden State Warriors will have a healthy Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green next season, not to mention whatever they do with Andrew Wiggins and a top-five draft selection.

That means there will a minimum of eight teams firmly ahead of the Grizzlies and Suns. Until the Thunder actually trade Chris Paul, they have earned the same distinction. Now we’re at nine teams. (Have I mentioned that only eight teams can make the playoffs?)

Despite a massively disappointing performance in the bubble, the Pelicans they have to be mentioned in the same breath as Phoenix and Memphis. And just because the Spurs missed the playoffs for the first time in 22 years doesn’t mean they’re dead in the water either.

Finally, we can talk about Memphis and Phoenix. However, the Grizzlies, Suns, Pelicans and Spurs will be competing for for a playoff spot that doesn’t exist in the current state of the conference. The math is simply not in their favor.

(For the record, while the Kings and Timberwolves do have some young talent, I cannot say with a straight face that either team has any chance of competing for the playoffs next season.)

The NBA changes more season to season than any other sport, so we must leave room for absolute chaos in the offseason. I mean, who saw OKC trading Paul George and Russell Westbrook coming last summer? The Jazz could trade Rudy Gobert, the Thunder could move Chris Paul or Karl-Anthony Towns could get moved to an actual playoff contender. A top player could get injured and completely sink a team’s postseason chances, as well.

This is the best argument for the NBA to remove conference designations for playoff seeding. We’d all much rather see the Grizzlies and Suns in the playoff instead of the Nets and Magic.

Philadelphia 76ers

I’m done with this team. Ben Simmons injury officially vaporized the Sixers’ championship ceiling, but the reality is that this team doesn’t have the foundation to make a deep playoff run. This team is broken. From management to coaching to the players, this team doesn’t work.

I was going to write all the little things that have led to this belief, but Game 1 versus the Celtics is a perfect microcosm of the issues that plague the Sixers. The following analysis from Jackson Frank is a damning indictment of the system in Philly.

Embiid was involved in almost every play. He was open on face-ups and post-ups various times. The offense was instead run through Alec Burks, Josh Richardson and Tobias Harris. The Sixers’ best player cannot be marginalized like that.

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 18, 2020

I don’t really have anything else to add. This is one of those situations where Philly has shown us exactly who they are all season: the roster doesn’t fit together well, the coach doesn’t understand how to maximize their best players, and management doesn’t understand value. It’s time we finally accept it.

The Weekly Rant

It’s insane how hard the Nets are playing in a game that means absolutely nothing for them. https://t.co/4Z36uZnKCn

— Jeff Nowak (@Jeff_Nowak) August 14, 2020

I don’t mean to single out Jeff Nowak — because there were plenty of people chiming in with similar beliefs — but this way of thinking drove me up a wall last weekend.

I cannot stand this type of analysis. It’s lazy. It’s inaccurate. It’s disrespectful. I hate everything about it.

So just because the Nets couldn’t move from the seventh-seed, they’re supposed to just roll over? That’s the expectation? That’s all you (in general) think of these professional athletes?

You expected Caris LaVert to pack it in? The man wants to prove he can be (at a minimum) the third option to KD and Kyrie on a likely championship contender next year. He doesn’t want to be traded to Sacramento or Detroit. He wants to prove he’s a future All-Star and can do toe-to-toe with the best in the league.

You expected Tyler Johnson to half-ass it? The dude wasn’t on a roster until late June. His NBA career was in jeopardy without an impressive performance in the bubble.

You expected Joe Harris and Garrett Temple to rest up? These guys are in a contract year. They want to get paid. If they were worried about an injury jeopardizing their free agency, they wouldn’t be in Orlando at all.

To top it all off, Jacque Vaughn is the interim head coach. He wants the full-time gig. He wants to coach KD and Kyrie next year, not Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn.

There’s a difference between the Bucks resting their starters in a game that doesn’t affect their seeding and the Nets B-Team playing in one. Giannis knows he’ll be out there when the games “matter”. The Nets players and coach don’t have that luxury. They have to earn every minute of playing time in the games that do matter.

The lesson here is to expect professional athletes to compete every chance they get. Sure, a player may mail in a night here and there — but that’s the exception, not the rule. Rant over.

My (Extremely Unofficial and Subject to Change) Playoff Predictions

I don’t want to get to in-depth with my predictions because things will change a lot over the next several weeks. Also, I don’t know what the fuck is going to happen.

Western Conference

• Lakers over Trail Blazers in 5
• Clippers over Mavericks in 5
• Nuggets over Jazz in 6
• Rockets over Thunder in 6

• Lakers over Rockets in 6
• Clippers over Nuggets in 6

• Clippers over Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference

• Bucks over Magic in 4 (oops)
• Raptors over Nets in 5 (universal law dictates they lose Game 1)
• Celtics over 76ers in 6
• Heat over Pacers in 5

• Bucks over Heat in 6
• Raptors over Celtics in 7

• Raptors over Bucks in 7

NBA Finals: Clippers over Raptors in 7

There are a few changes from my first postseason thoughts. Initially, I had the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers (in that order) in a tier of their own. I’ve decided that the Raptors not only deserve to be included in such tier, but may very well take out the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Toronto’s lack of a bonafide superstar and the Bucks having the ultimate superstar in Giannis could make this prediction look foolish. But when I watched a few Bucks games in the bubble, I just hated the Bucks offense in crunch time. Giannis has one move in these situations (attack the rim) and the Raptors know exactly how to stop it.

This is a bet on the Raptors swarming defense, a plethora of guys who can create in a half-court offense and championship pedigree. They will not be afraid of the Bucks, while Giannis is quietly facing late 2000’s LeBron-in-Cleveland pressure to win.

Out West, the Lakers struggles in the bubble have grown the seed of doubt just enough to change my champion. I know the Lakers literally beat the Clippers in Orlando. Hell, I want the Lakers to win. But it’s foolish to take much away from a single result, especially one in which one play changes the outcome.

I was only favoring the Lakers by slightly more than a coin-flip to begin with, so this isn’t some massive change of heart. Right now, I’d give the Clippers a slight edge (53-47?), but I’ll absolutely change my mind after almost every game because I am a perpetual victim of recency bias.

This Twitter exchange, once again from the great Jackson Frank, is a perfect example of the debate inside my mind.

I think LAC’s rotation is overrated and doesn’t complement its stars that well while LAL’s is underrated and complements its stars well. And yeah I like the size advantage for LAL

— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) August 17, 2020

One day, including today apparently, I believe what Chris Stephens said will be how the playoffs unfold. The next, I think the Lakers’ complementary role players will push them past the Clippers.

In short, flip a damn coin. I just hope we actually get to see these two teams play at full strength.

I also admit that I tend to fall for intriguing storylines. With that in mind, the narrative of a Clippers-Raptors Finals is undeniably intoxicating. The defending champion versus the defending champions. Paul George getting shut down by OG Anunoby. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet talkin’ shit with Patrick Beverly and Lou Williams. It’s perfect.

I’ll have some new thoughts in a week or so. But for now, it’s #DameTime.