Scattered Thoughts: The NBA Re-Season

I think most of you reading this have figured out that I typically like writing longer, carefully thought-out articles. This is not one of those.

I am diving into true blogging with some less formal writing. Instead of turning one of my random ideas into a full-fledged article, I decided to turn all of them into one half-assed blog post. I’m going to call these “Scattered Thoughts” because that’s exactly what they are and because I like cliché titles.

The topic of this piece is the NBA’s officially return, which is great! The bubble has been successful so far, with zero positive COVID-19 cases in two weeks. Also great! Although, Lou Williams almost ruined it by stopping for some strip-club chicken wings. Not great, but also very funny in a twisted sorta way.

Normally, I would’ve turned this piece into a rest-of-season predictions article, but I have absolutely no fucking clue who is going to win, or if the season will even be finished. So I’m not even going to bother making an official pick at this point in time. I do believe the champion will be one of three teams, so here are my thoughts on them.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ depth is the biggest thing that could prevent them from winning the title. The fact that Avery Bradley sitting out the rest of the season and Rajon Rondo getting injured makes a dent in their rotation sums up their depth issues pretty well.

But at the end of the day, no team can match the duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Kawhi Leonard is, at worst, on par with LeBron, but I believe Paul George is a shade below Davis. He could absolutely prove me wrong, though. The same goes for the criminally underrated Khris Middleton, who essentially put up a 50/40/90 season while dropping 21 points in only 30 minutes per game. He struggled a bit last postseason, but like George, there’s no reason he can’t turn that around.

Even if George or Middleton reaches a new level, it’ll be hard for the Clippers and Bucks to match the sheer dominance of a LeBron/Davis duo. Does that make the Lakers title favorites? That depends on how you value star power versus depth. The Raptors won last year’s title on the backs of a single superstar and a plethora of incredibly over-qualified role players, but the previous four champions were led by a minimum of two superstars.

Another thing that the Lakers have in their favor is unusually high team chemistry. Maybe it just seems that way because they get more media coverage than any other team, but LA is undeniably a tight-knit group.

Chemistry is a necessity for teams with championship aspirations, but I don’t know if extra chemistry moves the needle any further. There has to be a point of diminishing returns, right? Or perhaps the quarantine conditions in the bubble could increase the importance of chemistry. Three months is a long time to be isolated with almost exclusively teammates.

Again, I don’t even know if it means anything, but I do think it’s an interesting topic to monitor as the season progresses. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The case for the Clippers starts with Kawhi Leonard. The unofficial title of “Best Player in the World” still belongs to Kawhi. The reigning Finals MVP has to be beaten before that belt is passed.

(Side note: If LeBron, Giannis or someone else takes down Kawhi’s Clippers, I don’t know if that title is retroactively awarded, especially in Giannis’ case. There is no right answer. It is also a borderline-meaningless, unofficial title that fans and media use to entertain ourselves. That’s another random thing that me and like four other people on basketball Twitter care about.)

With Leonard, George and Lou Williams, the Clippers feature a multitude of “closers”. You can confidently give these guys the ball with six seconds on the shot clock and say Get me a bucket. I’m not sure the Bucks have that third guy and the Lakers’ definitely do not (contrary to Dion Waiters and JR Smith’s personal belief).

At the end of games, this likely won’t be a factor, though. One of LeBron/Davis and Giannis/Middleton will have the ball, so the third guy isn’t necessary in crunch time. Also, Lou Williams likely won’t be on the court for LA because of his putrid defense. Over the course of a game though, Williams’ scoring prowess off the bench will definitely matter because the Clippers will always have a certified assassin on the court, while we know the Lakers’ crater without LeBron. The Bucks have been able to actually outscore teams on the season without Giannis on the court, but as competition increases in the postseason, that seems unlikely to continue.

When comparing this Clippers roster to last year’s Raptors, I have two thoughts. George is clearly the best non-Kawhi player. He’d be the number one pick in a hypothetical pick-up game. But the next like two to six picks could be Raptors? Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry undoubtedly are the next two picks, but I could argue Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet and Danny Green all contribute more to a playoff team than Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Patrick Beverly or Marcus Morris.

Basically, I think the Clippers are deep. They’ve got good NBA players up and down their roster. But their role players are not as versatile and well-rounded as the 2019 Raptors’. Does that mean anything? I don’t know. The Raptors title was a bit fluky and relied too heavily on scorching hot streaks from guys like VanVleet to be repeatable. A superstar like George raises the Clippers’ floor and ceiling, essentially guaranteeing a conference finals berth.

I tend to underrate George and I probably overstate his playoff struggles as a Damian Lillard fan. Kawhi plus George plus depth could easily be enough to win a championship.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are simply the most dominant team in the league for the second year in a row. Their starters blitz the living hell out of opponents for three quarters, then the bench comes in and maintains the lead. Last year was their first taste of a deep playoff run. Maybe they needed their teeth kicked in before they could succeed at the highest level, à la the 2018-19 Kansas City Chiefs.

Giannis averaged 29.6/13.7/5.8 in less than 31 minutes per game this season. I said earlier that Kawhi still holds the best of “Best Player in the World”, but — *glances back at Giannis’ stats* — maybe he shouldn’t.

The Bucks led the Raptors 2-0 in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals and lost Game 3 in double overtime. If one or two plays go the other way, the Bucks have a 3-0 lead and almost certainly make the Finals.

I say this cautiously… the wrong team may have won last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Giannis may have been the “Best Player in the World” for the past two years, aside form a four-game blip in late May 2019. There is a chance the Bucks simply steamroll everyone in their path en route to a championship.

If you held a gun to my head (I’m making a lot of Bill Simmons references here and for that I apologize. I’ll find my own blogging voice eventually), I would pick the Bucks to win the East and the Lakers to come out of the West on the backs of the LeBron/Davis duo. As of July 20th, 2020 at 18:16 EST, I would pick the Bucks to win the Finals by the slimmest of margins.

Moving onto the non-title favorites….

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have the widest range of outcomes of any team in basketball. They could lose in the first round or make the Finals (and maybe even win it). Contrary to popular belief (at least on basketball Twitter), the path to Philadelphia making the Finals has nothing to do with Ben Simmons shooting threes (although, there may be something to the theory that the lack of fans heckling him will allow him to play more freely) and everything to do with Joel Embiid.

If Embiid is the best player on the floor, the Sixers can absolutely make the NBA Finals. This isn’t an impossibility; it literally happened on Christmas Day against Giannis and the Bucks. Embiid, like the Sixers as a whole, is highly unpredictable and his play varies tremendously game to game.

This feels like a good time to mention that I like Ben Simmons more than most. As a truly elite defender and playmaker, I think he’s in the top ten to fifteen range of players in the league right now. Philly is experimenting with Simmons playing power forward in the scrimmages and I’ll be honest: I have no idea what that means. Isn’t basketball positionless? But it seems to be working as the Sixers starters have played at a high level through two scrimmages. Only time will tell if the new strategy is truly successful.

The Sixers are not the fourth-best team in the NBA, and I don’t even know if they are particularly close to that. They are, however, the most interesting team in the entire league.

New York Knicks hire Tom Thibodeau

I have mixed feelings about this hire.

I see the allure of Thibs as a basketball guru/genius, especially defensively. He’s been the architect of very good teams. His Bulls in the early 2010’s had the best record in the Eastern Conference twice during the Heatles era, including a 62-win 2010-11 campaign. In his second head coaching stint, Thibodeau led the Timberwolves to the playoffs — their first and only playoff appearance since 2004.

He has also developed young talent. Jimmy Butler, the 30th overall in the 2011 draft, blossomed into a five-time All-Star and four-time All-Defensive team player. Derrick Rose was the youngest MVP in league history during the 2011 season.

There are significant negatives to Thibodeau as well. He is not well liked in NBA circles, to put it lightly. Thirty-six percent of players in a 2019 survey voted him as the coach they’d least like to play for, the highest percentage by a significant margin. He wasn’t even employed at the time.

His Timberwolves era ended ugly. Obviously, Butler takes the brunt of the blame, and deservedly so considering his infamous (yet understandable?) antics, but Thibodeau deserves blame for allowing that type of culture to develop.

Additionally, Thibodeau notoriously plays his starters wayyy too many minutes. Luol Deng averaged 38 minutes per game across his five seasons with Thibs in Chicago, leading the league twice. Rose’s first ACL injury occurred with less than 90 seconds remaining in a playoff game (Game One, no less) in which the Bulls led by 12. Deng, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver were also still in the game. In 2017-18, Butler, Wiggins and Towns all ranked in the top-13 in minutes per game. Some believe such high minute totals played a factor in the sharp declines and injury history of Deng, Noah and Rose.

With Thibodeau, there are two sides and not much of a middle ground. Some see him as a tough-as-nails grinder who simply wins basketball games. Others see him as a relic of an outdated coaching philosophy, the antithesis of what a coach should be in a “load management” era. There is a world where Thibs helps RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and their 2020 first round pick (and maybe even Frank Ntilikina!) develop into quality NBA players. There’s also a world where Taj Gibson plays 38 minutes per game, the Knicks win like 26 games, taking them out of the top-three of the lottery, and Barrett starts feuding with the organization.

Professional sports in general has a weird fascination with hiring bad, retread coaches instead of an up-and-comer. I don’t get it. What’s the upside? I understand the downside; sometimes you get a Tim Floyd or Freddie Kitchens. But sometimes, you get Nick Nurse and you win the fucking championship. 

Thibodeau isn’t exactly a bad retread, but there isn’t really any upside to hiring him. Maybe he helps your young players get a little better, but he’s not leading them on a deep playoff run (mostly because the roster flat out sucks) and he’s not recruiting superstars to New York. So what’s the point then?

Lightning Round 

• I don’t know what the hell Houston is going to do with PJ Tucker and Robert Covington as their bigs in a playoff series, especially against the Lakers or Nuggets, but I am intrigued. The Rockets can make some noise in the playoffs, but they have to do whatever it takes to avoid the Clippers in round one. LAC is one of the few teams who go just as small, and a frontcourt Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Marcus Morris is simply better than Houston’s best micro-ball lineup. Unless the Rockets make like 22 threes, of course.

• The Nuggets are almost as interesting as the Sixers and Rockets, but lack immediate championship upside and public animosity. Nikola Jokic in his second postseason could prove to be a true alpha and lead Denver on another deep run. With Bol Bol and Michael Porter Jr. into the fold as well, they are even more compelling. My issue with the Nuggets as far as winning the 2020 title is their reliance on Jamal Murray and Gary Harris as a backcourt. It’s simply not up to par with the rest of the West (it’s almost inarguably the worst of any Western Conference playoff team) and I do not believe Jokic and the frontcourt make up for it. 

• Take all your hypothetical Zion Williamson and Ja Morant versus LeBron first round series and light them on fire. I want Dame DOLLA, CJ McCollum, Carmelo Anthony and the Blazers in the playoffs. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back into the fold, it’s not hard to see the path for that to happen.

• On a related note, can we send the Nets and Wizards home? Just let one of the Trail Blazers or Pelicans take the final Eastern Conference playoff spot. That would be infinitely more entertaining to watch. I mean, which would you rather see: Giannis versus Zion/Dame or Giannis versus… I honestly don’t even know, 40-year-old, fresh off the street Jamal Crawford?

• Finally, Lakers fans: enjoy making jokes at Lou Will’s expense while you can. Just remember that you have the literal meme team in JR Smith, Dion Waiters, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Dwight Howard and Kyle Kuzma on your team. Half of your roster might need one of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s ankle monitor’s inside of the bubble.