NFL Week 1: Picks and Questions

Welcome back to the worst NFL picks column in blogging history. Last year was miserable; we didn’t even finish the season. Frankly, we couldn’t take the embarrassment any longer. That will not be the case this year.

We are back and better than ever. Scott “Mr. 1-4” Erland returns for another year. Lauren Moore — Athletics Communications Coordinator at Flager College, former Graduate Assistant at LMU and die-hard Titans fan — will be joining us this year as well.

We are using the consensus lines at Vegas Insider. The lines may vary slightly based on when we made our picks.

At the end, I’ll be sharing my five questions for Week 1, so keep scrolling after you read our degenerate picks.

Lauren’s Picks

Indianapolis -8 at Jacksonville

Seeing Philip Rivers in a Colts’ uniform is going to be so strange, but he couldn’t have asked for a better team to start this stint with his new franchise. Unlike fellow AFC South foe Texans, the Jaguars got more than pennies when trading away key players (Cc: DeAndre Hopkins); however, those draft picks aren’t going to help this jaded Jaguars team right now. Rivers will save his late-game interceptions for the Titans, Marlon Mack will hush the Jonathon Taylor lovers, and DeForest Buckner will give the Colts the pass rush factor they’ve been desperately missing since Dwight Freeney.

Buffalo -6.5 vs. N.Y. Jets

So now that Josh Allen actually has a legit wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, does that mean he’ll be the franchise quarterback the Bills drafted him to be over the likes of Lamar Jackson? Or will Allen continue to miss throws that drive Nolan to tears on a weekly basis? I can’t think of a better team to face than the Jets to start the new QB-WR connection, especially without star Jamal Adams, who the Jets traded to the Seahawks. Diggs goes off and Allen makes Nolan re-think his hate — for at least one week. It’s going to be a long day in Buffalo for the city boys. 

Cleveland +6.5 at Baltimore

Do the Browns finally have a head coach with some sense? Have the Ravens gotten over the shocking playoff loss to the Tennessee Titans? Those are the two looming questions and you should keep reading for the answers. For the first time in a LONG time, I think the Browns may actually have some discipline to get the best out of a super talented roster. Head coach Kevin Stefanski will lean on Nick Chubb and Baker Mayfield will find out Austin Hooper is his new best friend; meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will barely pull out this season opener with sorrows still lingering.

Arizona +7 at San Francisco

I’m buying into the Kyler Murray hype. I’m also buying into the idea that the 49ers, who are thin at wide receiver to begin the season, aren’t fully over the Superbowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, San Francisco has arguably the best tight end in the league in George Kittle, but Murray now has arguably the best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins on top of many other weapons for Kliff Kingsbury to utilize. Those options will allow Murray to scramble more and put the Cardinals in this one until the very end.   

Tennessee -2.5 at Denver

Speaking of Tennessee, the last time the Titans were at Mile High Stadium, Derrick Henry had one of his worst rushing performances and Marcus Mariota registered his final start in a Titans uniform. Oh, how times have changed. Insert Ryan Tannehill and an AFC Championship title game appearance — powered by Henry, the NFL Rushing King, and A.J. Brown who was robbed of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year — and you’ll really remember the Titans. Tennessee traded away defensive stud Jurrell Casey to the Broncos, so he’ll have a lot to play for, but Denver is without Von Miller and the Titans have newly-signed, playmaker Jadeveon Clowney against a second-year quarterback. You do the math and run it back.

Scott’s Picks

Baltimore -7 vs. Cleveland

In the strangest and saddest year of my adult life, where everything feels so uncertain, I am making this pick in hopes that there is one thing that we can all still count on: The Cleveland Browns will suck. I don’t love giving a touchdown, but I feel confident that the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens will once again be one of the premier teams in the AFC, if not the class, and the Browns will restore some faith in the certainties we all previously relied on.  

Philadelphia -5.5 at Washington

The Washington Football Team should not be getting less than a touchdown all season (sorry, Matt Green), unless 2020 somehow strikes again and blesses this horribly run franchise and wretched excuse of an owner with a successful season. I am a tad concerned that the Redskins are used to playing in an empty stadium while Philly is not. However, if Carson Wentz can regain the form we saw from him a couple of seasons ago, I could see another nice run from the Eagles in 2020.

Detroit -2 vs. Chicago

Mitch Trubisky is getting yet another shot at solidifying the starting position for the Bears. I know the Chicago defense is pretty tough and I also know that Detroit was fairly embarrassing last season, but I’m going with my gut on this one. Also, I’m banking on the fact that the lack of preseason will have Trubisky looking like he’s throwing with the wrong hand.

Atlanta +2.5 vs. Seattle

While I wish this line was 3.5, I’m still rolling with Atlanta. Seattle, in all likelihood, is going to be awesome again in 2020, but they are usually slow starters. And the whole west coast team traveling to the east coast might play some role in this outcome. If nothing else, Atlanta’s offense should be able to keep this close, so I’ll take my chances on the home underdog.

Tennessee -3 at Denver

Did you really think I wouldn’t make this pick? I’m a little concerned that my beloved Titans are getting too much love, not to mention that Denver is never an easy place to play. But without Von Miller, this defense seems drastically different. Plus, I’m not worried about any quarterback option that the Broncos can trot out there. I’ll take the Titans because I’m a glutton for punishment and want to have some extra skin in the game. 

Nolan’s Picks

Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota

Much has been made about Green Bay’s fluky 13-3 season and questionable draft decisions (and rightfully so), but at least the Packers largely held water. The same cannot be said of the Minnesota Vikings, who lost WR Stefon Diggs, DE Everson Griffen, G Josh Kline, both starting CBs Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander, and their OC Kevin Stefanski. One of the few incumbent stars on defense, Danielle Hunter, is out for Week 1. Without a preseason, the Vikings will struggle to adapt.

Cincinatti +3 vs L.A. Chargers

This is what I had to say about the Bengals-49ers Week 2 match up last season.

“Does anyone really think San Francisco (who were literally gifted a win by Jameis Winston) is better than Cincinnati (who nearly won on the road in Seattle)? I think the 49ers are on the verge of an implosion and the Bengals looked borderline good last week. I like this pick a whole lot, which makes me feel uneasy because, well, it’s the Bengals.”

Week 2 NFL Picks with Scott Erland

They say the great ones have short memory. With that said, I AM ONCE AGAIN PICKING THE CINCINNATI BENGALS. The Bengals (a) have the better quarterback, (b) are at home, and (c) are getting points. Derwin James, Mike Williams and Mike Pouncey are all out, because it wouldn’t be an NFL season without the Chargers are battling injury woes. Give me the Tiger King, Joe Exotic, Jeaux Burreuax — whatever glorious nickname you prefer — in his NFL debut.

Buffalo -6.5 vs N.Y. Jets

I don’t think the Bills will live up to expectations this season. I think the Bills should win handily this week. Both of these can be true.

Adam Gase’s Jets are a nightmare. He truly despises Le’Veon Bell for unknown reasons, which means 87-year-old Frank Gore is going to get carries. The Jets tried to patch together offensive line and wide receiver improvements this offseason; in the long run those additions may prove successful, but not in Week 1. One rookie, WR Denzel Mims, is out and the other, LT Mekhi Becton, will likely struggle without a preseason. Without Jamal Adams and potentially Marcus Maye, Josh Allen has to connect with Stefon Diggs or John Brown on at least one long pass, right?

Pittsburgh -6 at N.Y. Giants

The line is high for a road favorite. However, I believe in the Steelers being good the Giants being a disaster. Pittsburgh has the better quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, secondary and vastly better coaching staff. New York has the better running back? Mike Tomlin is licking his chops for this opening match up against the terrible trifecta (official nickname pending) of Joe Judge, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens.

Tennessee -2.5 at Denver

Another road favorite, a consensus pick, Scott and Lauren’s favorite team… what can go wrong.

Denver was a popular sleeper pick this offseason, but the wind has really be taken out of their sails with Von Miller’s season-ending injury. Courtland Sutton’s status for Week 1 is in question too. Many expect the Titans to come back down to Earth — and maybe they will — but not this week. AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith will run wild against the retooled Broncos’ secondary.

My Five Questions

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneer?

I mean, where else is there to start? Brady leaves the AFC East and joins the NFC South, where Drew Brees awaits. Oh, and he brought his best buddy Rob Gronkowski with him. Was Brady’s decline in recent years due to his age, a conservative scheme or a lack of weapons? We’re about to find out.

Cam Newton, New England Patriot?

With Newton, the Patriots could not have found a more diametrically opposite replacement. Brady wins with precision and timing; Newton is an explosive athlete with a cannon for an arm. There’s another obvious distinction between the two, and I’ll just say that stereotypically-speaking most New England fans would take Brady 100 times out of 100 based purely on a photograph.

On the other hand, both quarterbacks live and breathe football, have total command of a locker room and have rather unique fashion senses. Maybe things aren’t so different after all.

How does Joe Burrow perform in his NFL Debut?

The issue with most top draft picks is that the are drafted to shitty teams. Look at Sam Darnold’s Jets or Josh Rosen’s entire existence. Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield have incredible situations now, but they didn’t early in their careers. The Patrick Mahomes to Kansas City scenarios are the exception, not the rule. Burrow might be an exception.

While Burrow left an LSU offense loaded with five-star prospects and first-round talent, he enters one with a healthy AJ Green, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, John Ross, Auden Tate and Tee Higgins. If Zac Taylor is merely competent and the offensive line holds up adequately, Burrow has a chance at making some more history this season. I’m interested to see if the rookie needs time to adjust or will dominate from Day 1.

What does the Carolina Panthers overhauled offense look like?

I am fascinated by Carolina’s offense. What Joe Brady unlocked at LSU last year was nothing short of special. How much of that success was due to Brady’s scheme versus the team’s talent remains to be seen. However, Brady has similar talent lined up in Carolina. In fact, the Panthers receivers — DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson and TE Ian Thomas — intrigue me more than free agent acquisition Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater gets the ball out quickly and on target, and those receivers are some of the best in football at creating space and making defenders miss. This offense could be electric, though it probably won’t result in too many W’s.

Is this the year the Browns turn things around?

The hype train for the Browns in 2019 was out of control. Full disclosure, I bought enough tickets to own a personal train car on said hype train. Things are different this year, or at least they appear that way. New HC Kevin Stefanski has taken a more low-key, process-based approach. They bolstered their weaknesses on the offensive line, got Odell Beckham Jr. healthy (who is still a top-five WR talent) and added TE Austin Hooper. They are in for a tall around against the Ravens this week, especially with a depleted secondary, but I’ve got playoff expectations for Cleveland in 2020.