My Complete 2020 NFL Predictions

I don’t understand how we got here — well, I do, but it’s too bleak for me to think about — but we did it. No need for a fancy lede or anything here. You’re here to read my picks and roast me on Twitter. I get it. I know what I signed up for by starting a blog. Let’s do it.

Division Winners and Wild Cards

AFC East: Cam Versus Jaheim

It’s a new era in the Tom Brady-less AFC East. The Bills have been building for this exact moment, and their offseason trade for Stefon Diggs proves as much. The craziest part is that New England lost Tom Brady in free agency and potentially upgraded at the quarterback position.

I am as big of a Josh Allen hater as I am a Cam Newton fan (please listen to “The Cam Chronicles” by Tyler Tynes). The Bills have significantly better weapons at wide receiver. They have one of the best overall rosters and coaching staffs in the league. Their defense improved and didn’t rely on forcing turnovers last year, while New England lost talent all over the place and very much relied on forcing turnovers. Yet I still have serious hesitations about Buffalo’s ability to upend the Patriots.

The Bills early schedule (Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Raiders) is enticing, but I am truly terrified of their post-bye schedule (Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos, Patriots, Dolphins). Aside from Miami, those are five elite pass defenses down the stretch of what should be a closely contested division race. Allen will have to overcome those defenses as well as handle the immense pressure of ending the Bills’ 25 year division title drought. (Josh Allen was just a fetus the last time Buffalo won the AFC East.)

The Patriots lack of weapons concerns me, but I trust Josh McDaniels to create an innovative offense around Newton’s strengths. I trust Bill Belichick to make up for the numerous opt-outs and mitigate inevitable regression on the defensive side of the ball. I trust Cam Newton; I do not trust Josh Allen. It’s as simple as that.

AFC North: Duck Hunting Season is Over

Initially, I penciled the Ravens in as division champs without a second thought. But chaos is bound to occur, so I started poking holes in the top contenders.

One specific note from Warren Sharp’s season preview caught my eye: the Ravens rank 32nd in cap space spent on offensive line. For a team that relies as heavily on running the ball, especially considering the loss of future Hall of Famer Marshall Yanda, that worries me. They were also the healthiest offense in the league last year, and third on the OL. One or two injuries up front could hamper this rushing attack and they don’t exactly have the receiving weapons to win through the air quite yet.

The Steelers have their share of concerns as well, specifically Ben Roethlisberger’s health and turnover luck regression, but there are plenty of things in their favor. Pittsburgh faces the seventh-easiest schedule according to Sharp Football Analysis, including just three games against top-fifteen pass defenses. That means Big Ben doesn’t necessarily have to be Big Ben and the Steelers pass offense can bounce back in a massive way.

I actually like the Browns as a post-hype sleeper team as well. They doubled-down on fixing their issues at offensive line in the draft and free agency. Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy and Kevin Stefanski is undoubtedly an upgrade over Freddie Kitchens. However, I think the Browns fall in a similar position to the public perception of the Texans as the clear third team in a three-team race (which kinda means it isn’t really a three-team race).

(I’m two-for-two on changing my picks in transitioning my notes from GoogleDocs to WordPress. So much for trusting my gut.)

AFC South: Don’t Doubt Deshaun

Notice I said “public perception of the Texans as the clear third team in a three-team race”. I’ll be honest: I’m not even sure I believe in this pick, but I feel I have to make a statement on the greatness of Deshaun Watson and competence of head coach Bill O’Brien’s behalf. It’s rant time.

Houston has won the AFC South four times in the past five years, all under O’Brien. That includes the 2015 season — featuring a QB room of Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden — and the 2016 season, which included 14 starts from Brock Osweiler. The one year Houston failed to win the division was 2017, Watson’s rookie year when he tore his ACL after just six starts. Say what you will about O’Brien’s GM skills, but the man can coach a football team.

On a related note, the Texans traded DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson and a second round pick this offseason. This was not a good trade for the Texans. But allow me to play devil’s advocate for a moment. Houston still has a very good receiving core, though admittedly a fragile one. Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Randall Cobb and Keke Coutee is a deep group of receivers who can get open in different ways. There’s a chance that forcing Watson to spread the ball around instead of peppering Hopkins could actually help him as a passer.

My bet on Houston hinges on one, indisputable fact: Watson is the best quarterback in the division by a mile.

The Titans were the team of destiny in 2019; a midseason quarterback change to peak Peyton Manning Ryan Tannehill sparked a 7-3 finish and consecutive postseason victories over the Patriots and Ravens en route to an AFC Championship berth. Tennessee scored touchdowns on 26 of their 30 red-zone trips under Tannehill, “the highest rate in the league for a season in the 2000s” according to Sharp Football Analysis. Tannehill’s efficiency was obviously unsustainable and nobody expects him to repeat it, nor do the Titans need him to, but I’m going to need to see this offense be great again before I believe it.

I love the Titans’ secondary, but the pass rush is suspect and Jadeveon Clowney won’t help that as much as you think he will. I still think the Titans are pretty damn good and should contend for a Wild Card berth.

Warren Sharp loves the Colts, and he’s rarely wrong when he’s that confident, so I’m going out on a limb by fading Indianapolis. He cites a few stats that are certain to flip in the Colts’ favor. Indy went 2-5 after Week 7 when leading at half, which might be the worst record ever. They had the least healthy wide receiving unit in the league and added Michael Pittman Jr. in the early second round of the draft. They improved at quarterback, reuniting Phillip Rivers with Frank Reich.

My hesitation with Indy starts with Rivers. Are we positive he’s an upgrade? The dude might be straight up washed. He’s going to be 39 years old by the end of the season. Look, not every single quarterback can age like Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Rivers’ 20 interceptions in 2019 were the third-most in the league and he’s on a new team for the first time in his career.

Time for another rant: I just don’t understand how the Colts looked at the available quarterbacks this offseason (Brady, Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, plus all the guys in the draft) and thought Rivers was not only the best option, but worth $25 million. In no fucking universe is a 38-year-old Rivers worth twenty-five times more than Newton and Winston; and yes those guys don’t have a previous relationship with Reich, but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the other difference between those players. (Go look at their picture if you’re missing my point.)

Additionally, I don’t like trading top draft picks for players due massive contracts as the Colts did with DeForest Buckner, but that’s more of a long-term issue than a short-term one. Although, the Colts are spending the least amount of their cap on defense and it shows, especially in the secondary.

Sharp projects the Colts schedule to be the easiest in the NFL and the Titans aren’t far behind. That’s the biggest advantage Indy and Tennessee have over Houston (who faces a gauntlet of KC, BAL, PIT and MIN to start the year). I’m not comfortable with difficulty of schedule being the main reason I pick one team over the other, especially when Deshaun Watson exists.

AFC West: Half a Billion Reasons Why

Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Tyrann Mathieu, Frank Clark. Next question.

I was *this* close to hopping aboard the Broncos hype train, but Von Miller’s ankle injury is devastating. It’s deeper than Miller’s presence on the field — he’s the leader of that team. The psychological effect of losing him just days before the season is brutal as well.

I’m still fascinated by the offense; Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton (COURTLAND SUTTON GOT HURT WHILE I WAS WRITING THIS), Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Noah Fant and even Melvin Gordon could be an awesome unit, especially with Pat Shurmur as the new offensive coordinator.

While the defense under Vic Fangio should still be pretty good, the burden of making up for Miller’s absence falls on the offense. I’m not sure Lock is ready for that. I can see Denver competing for a Wild Card spot, but I think we are a year away from the Broncos crashing the postseason party.

AFC Wild Cards

I thought three Wild Card spots would make predictions easier. I was wrong.

With New England, Pittsburgh, Houston and Kansas City earning division titles, that leaves Baltimore, Cleveland, Buffalo, Tennessee and Indianapolis fighting for the Wild Card berths in my eyes. If I had to guess the surprise team, I’d start with Denver and Cincinnati as my long shots.

I think we can lock in Baltimore for the top Wild Card spot. In fact, I’d bet they have the third-best record in the AFC behind Kansas City and Pittsburgh.

I already picked apart the Colts and frankly (no pun intended), I just don’t like the Colts so I’m going to perhaps foolishly leave them out. (This feels very much like my take on San Francisco last year, which, uh, did not work out well for me.)

That leaves Buffalo, Cleveland and Tennessee fighting for two playoff spots. What a fucking sentence that is.

I’m going to talk myself through this pick.

There is no indisputable top quarterback, which would be my tiebreaker in most cases. Tannehill was by far the best of the bunch last year. Mayfield could easily return to his rookie season efficiency, but I have a hard time seeing Allen outperforming both Tannehill and Mayfield.

Point: Cleveland, Tennessee

In a COVID-offseason, continuity seems likely to be a deciding factor. (Personally, I wonder if pure talent may outweigh continuity.) Buffalo is the poster child of continuity, returning 88% of snaps (basically only adding Diggs) and retaining the entire coaching staff. Tennessee ranks in the middle of the pack, losing a starting tackle in Jack Conklin (to Cleveland) and defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Also, the ink has yet to dry on Clowney’s contract. The Browns have an almost entirely new coaching staff, two new offensive line starts (including a rookie), and a free agent acquisition starting at tight end in Austin Hooper. All those moves are major upgrades, but they’ll need to gel somewhat fast.

Point: Buffalo, Tennessee

Cleveland obviously faces a brutal divison schedule with four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but it’s worth mentioning they played the Ravens better than anyone last year. Outside of the division, they’ll face the NFC East and AFC South, while the Titans face the NFC North and the AFC North. Each team gets two brutal out of division opponents (CLE: DAL, PHI; TEN: BAL, PIT). The Week 13 match up between Cleveland and Tennessee could be the difference in this race.

The Bills don’t have a super difficult projected schedule, but their stretch from Weeks 12 through 16 scares the living shit out of me (point: Cleveland, iykyk). Allen will face the Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, Broncos and Patriots — all potentially elite pass defenses — down the stretch of a playoff race. Buffalo will need to stack wins early in the season.

Point: Tenneessee, Cleveland

This is perhaps the greatest emotional hedge of all emotional hedges, but I can just see myself looking at Allen after the season the same way Bears fans look at Trubisky. When my family reads this, I won’t be welcome home for the holidays.

Wild Card 1: Baltimore Ravens

Wild Card 2: Tennessee Titans

Wild Card 3: Cleveland Browns

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NFC East: Pay the Man, Jerry

Last year, I was drinking the Eagles Kool-Aid; this year, I’m all-in on the Dallas Cowboys. Good riddance to The Clapper and hello to analytics guru, Mike McCarthy. Kellen Moore retains play calling duties and he has an exhilarating new toy to play with in the form of rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Amari Cooper’s finesse and route running abilities combined with Michael Gallup’s all-around game already made for a dominant duo, but Lamb brings a physicality that separates this group from the rest of the league. 

The defense has some questions in the secondary, but the pass rush could be dominant. Normally I prefer a defense that is built from the back forward (like Baltimore, Buffalo and New England), but when you have an offense like Dallas that forces teams to play catch up, a dominant pass rush might be more valuable than a dominant secondary.

Dallas being the NFC’s version of the Chiefs feels a bit hyperbolic, but at the same time, I kinda don’t hate the comparison. This team has a chance to make some serious noise come January.

The Eagles have been bitten by the injury bug once again, losing two starting offensive lineman for the season. Several starters are already day-to-day or week-to-week like Miles Sanders, Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffrey, Derek Barnett and Javon Hargrave. Doug Pederson is a fantastic coach and as long as Carson Wentz is upright, this team will be in playoff contention.

The Washington organization is a fucking disgrace as Ron Rivera is apparently the only adult in a room full of perverts and scumbags. Not much more needs to be said about the culture Dan Snyder has enabled. Football wise, the defense is better than you think. They are loaded with first-rounders up front, including #2 overall pick Chase Young, and the secondary has a couple big names. Between Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson, the offense has some talent. Haskins might not be awful? I’m not saying they’re gonna win more than like six or seven games, but they might be better than you think is all.

The Joe Judge/Jason Garrett duo is a disaster waiting to happen. Freddie Kitchens is the tight ends coach. Add in Dave Gettleman running this shit show (one Odell joke was enough), and I don’t want a thing to do with this team. (except Saquon, plz score fantasy points.)

NFC North: Is relegation to the CFL possible?

I think any team except Chicago could hypothetically win this division, but like the AFC North, it’s a two-team race disguised as a three-teamer. The Lions are becoming a sneaky, trendy pick, but I cannot in good conscience pick a coach who has made as many egregious gaffes as Matt Patricia to win a division title.

I had the Vikings as my pick to win the NFC North for basically the entire offseason, but I’m calling an audible. Look, I hate everything about the Packers offseason. This is a team that got absolutely curb stomped in the NFC title game and was frankly lucky to even be there. This is a team that took a backup QB, backup RB, and a backup TE/FB with their first three draft picks. This is a team that, despite having no competent wide receivers outside of Davante Adams, ignored a loaded WR draft class and a cost-effective free agency pool. Complacency kills. However, as much as Green Bay is due to regress from 13 wins, I don’t think they’ll fall off a cliff.

Minnesota, on the other hand, might. Stefon Diggs was a game-breaker for a Vikings offense that often is held back by its conservatism. While Gary Kubiak is as good of an OC replacement as you can possibly ask for, Kevin Stefanski was by all accounts a beloved voice and mind in that locker room. I viewed the trade for Yannick Ngakoue as a sign of aggression, not desperation, but with Danielle Hunter heading to IR for the beginning of the season, they suddenly desperately need Ngakoue on Day 1. Their first six games before a Week 7 bye are all against playoff-hopefuls. There’s an interesting dichotomy in their schedule; the first three matchups (GB, IND, TEN) are all run-heavy opponents, while the next three (HOU, SEA, ATL) are more explosive through the air. Mike Zimmer’s reliance on the running the football could be enough to win a game or two early, but Diggs’ absence will be profound by Week 4 and cost them wins.

NFC South: Father Time’s Blind Spot

New Orleans Saints: The Saints are the most all-in team in NFL history. They are $70 million over the cap for 2021. I don’t know how they’ve persevered after as many devastating postseason losses as they’ve had (The Minneapolis Miracle, the no-pass interference call, Kirk Cousins again). All signs indicate this season will be Drew Brees’ last, which should light a fire under everyone.

But something just seems off with this team in my eyes. They don’t appear to have any glaring weaknesses, but I haven’t really bought into the Super Bowl ceiling except for 2018. One reason is that Brees seems to fall off down the stretches. He was able to avoid that last season because a thumb injury allowed his arm to rest during the season. With Brady and the Bucs looking more formidable, the Saints won’t have the luxury of wrapping up the division by November this year. Also, the home field advantage of the SuperDome is largely wiped out due to the COVID-19 restrictions.

I like the Saints schedule, especially at the beginning of the year. They’ll host the new-look Bucs in Week 1, followed by the Raiders, Packers, Lions and Chargers before an early bye. 5-0 is well within reach, and with four games left against the Falcons and Panthers, making the playoffs seems inevitable. The Super Bowl is another story.

You might be able to talk me into the Bucs stealing this division, but here’s my thing. I don’t buy that this defense is any good. Tampa Bay had an elite run defense last year, but the pass defense was merely average according to DVOA. Have fun with an average pass defense in six games against Brees, Ryan and Bridgewater. The offense is almost too big to fail, but they won’t be as explosive as last year, though less turnovers likely mitigate that.

I lowkey like the Falcons and I think they have an outside shot to steal this division. The offense is elite with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and CeeDee Lamb. (What’s that? I’m getting word that Atlants did not in fact take Lamb at #16 in the draft. Questionable choice there.)

There are two concerns with Atlanta: depth and defense. The offense infamously features eleven first round picks, but it’s almost nothing but UDFA’s behind them. Their defense was the worst in the NFL through eight games, but was pretty damn good in the second half last year, helping Atlanta to a 6-2 finish. Every single statistic screams that was fluky.

Another damper on the Falcons hype train, if one even exists, is their schedule. It’s brutal, folks.

I kinda love the Panthers. How does one not root for Teddy Bridgewater? Joe Brady might be a true offensive genius. He will do a better job getting Christian McCaffery, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson and Ian Thomas into space better than NASA did with the Apollo missions. The Panthers’ biggest problem is the fact that I can’t name one defensive player on this team outside of Derrick Brown, who was my least favorite of the consensus top-15 or so prospects. Carolina will be fun to watch, but that’s about it.

NFC West: To Cook, or not to Cook

I’m going with Seattle for a couple of reasons. Number one is Russell and number two is Wilson. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are an awesome WR duo, and anything out of Josh Gordon is a plus. The defense has question marks for sure, but Jamal Adams and Bobby Wagner can solve a lot of those on their own. This division was closer than you’d think last year and I think Seattle improved while San Francisco got just a tiny bit worse.

The 49ers can’t be as good as they were last year in nearly every aspect. The rushing efficiency and defensive dominance are almost guaranteed to regress. The easiest way to overcome an elite defense coming back down to earth is with great quarterback play. In fact, that’s been Seattle’s gameplan for over half a decade now.

While I like Jimmy Garoppolo, he’s never had to carry that burden before. He had a chance to essentially win the Super Bowl and he missed an open Emmanuel Sanders streaking for the endzone. The Niners 2020 season could easily mirror the Rams’ 2019. A few cracks in the system puts more pressure on the above-average QB, but while he doesn’t completely fold (Hello, Trubisky), he can’t quite uplift the team. The Rams went 9-7 last year; 9-10 wins feels right for San Francisco in 2020.

Speaking of the Rams, I’ve been talking myself into them for the past month or so. Losing Todd Gurley could oddly help their offense, because they won’t be forced into 1st down runs despite abominable efficiency (2.4 yards per carry, a 26% success rate and .33 EPA per carry per Sharp Football Analysis). Without Gurley, I expect the Rams to throw early and often. If the Sean McVay “genius” thing is true, then he will have an answer for their iffy OL and 11-personnel dependency. Goff attempted 626 passes last year; I expect an additional fifty or so.

Alright folks, it’s time to kill your Kyler Murray, Kliff Kingsbury fantasies: The 2020 Arizona Cardinals are the 2019 Cleveland Browns. The parallels are almost too perfect.

• A sophomore Heisman-winning, Oklahoma QB coming off a solid, but overrated rookie season.
• An offseason trade for an elite wide receiver.
• Unanswered questions at offensive line.
• Star talent on defense, but no balance or depth.
• Play in an extremely competitive division.

I’m holding my long-term stock on Kyler-Kliff, but no thanks on 2020.

NFC Wild Cards

I’ve got Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle winning their divisions (feels like 2014 again). That leaves Philadelphia, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay fighting for the Wild Card spots. My dark horses outside of that group would be Atlanta and Washington.

I’m out on the NFC North getting two playoff teams, so bye-bye Detroit and Minnesota.

Despite all my concerns with the Buccaneers defense, I don’t see them missing the playoffs. A relatively easy schedule plus Tom fucking Brady equals playoffs.

That leaves the last three Super Bowl representatives of the NFC battling for the final two Wild Card spots. Ironically, I believe the one team who actually won the Super Bowl will be left out.

The Eagles’ injuries will hurt them early in the year, and unfortunately for them, they face the Rams and Niners in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively. Philly will need to capitalize on every weak opponent on their schedule, something they struggled to do last season, because a first-place schedule and the AFC North makes every other game extremely difficult.

Wild Card 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wild Card 2: San Francisco 49ers

Wild Card 3: Los Angeles Rams

Award Predictions

Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes

The epitome of the best player on the best team. It’s chalky, but the sooner we accept that Mahomes is on a potential GOAT-track, the better.

A few other players I think have really good chances are Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson. If the Seahawks or Cowboys snag the NFC’s one-seed, both quarterbacks will surely earn MVP consideration. (I think Dak has sneaky 5,000 yard and 50 touchdown potential.) Watson is the tide that lifts all boats in Houston. I feel fairly confident the MVP will be one of these four quarterbacks. (Lamar Jackson deserves a mention to round out the top-five.)

I think Carson Wentz, Ryan Tannehill, Cam Newton Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo are sneaky candidates if they are capable of lifting imperfect supporting casts and their teams return to (or remain in) Super Bowl contention. I think there will be some narrative-related buzz around Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Tom Brady as well, but their MVP time has passed.

Don’t you dare throw Josh Allen’s name in any MVP talk. Stop it. Get some help.

Offensive Player of the Year: George Kittle

I like to pick non-quarterbacks for this award, even if the voting history suggests it’s roughly 50/50 between the skill positions and signal callers. Usually, this award honors a record-breaking season for a player on a good team. That’s an almost impossible thing to predict, but here are a few players I think can threaten records.

The Falcons have narrowed their passing offense, which means more targets for Julio Jones; he could chase down Calvin Johnson’s 1,964 receiving yards record (of course, while scoring just six touchdowns) and lead Atlanta to a surprise playoff appearance. Davante Adams could be in a funnel situation like Michael Thomas last year, leading to career highs across the board as Green Bay repeats as NFC North champions. PFF’s Eric Eager floated a Derrick Henry OPOY pick as snobby running backs matter truthers try to sneak some love for Henry — and I don’t hate it. A 1,800 yard, 20-touchdown season is within his realm of outcomes.

I gave my unofficial for this award to George Kittle last year and I’m sticking to it. Kittle set the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end, but only scored a Julio-like five touchdowns. The Niners lost Emmanuel Sanders in free agency and their top receivers are all battling nagging injuries. Someone is going to need to carry the load in San Francisco. I think Kittle breaks his own yardage record and potentially threatens Rob Gronkowski’s tight end record of 17 touchdowns as well.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jamal Adams

I like so many players for this award. I can talk myself into Tre’Davious White, TJ Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Marlon Humphrey, Myles Garrett, Chris Jones, Cameron Jordan, Nick Bosa, Jalen Ramsey, and of course Aaron Donald without breaking a sweat.

The two most interesting names though are Seattle’s Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams. I think Seattle is going to contend for the NFC’s best record. Wagner is the single best MLB in the league and Adams’ versatility could be unlocked in Seattle. I’ll go with Adams because of he plays the more valuable position and the narrative factor.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Joe Burrow

There are so many fun rookies this year. Number one overall selection Burrow leads the list, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor will be awesome. The wide receiver class is stupid talented with Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs III, Bryan Edwards, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Laviska Shenault all potentially earning targets in Week 1. Plus, my favorite sleeper: Washington running back Antonio Gibson.

This decision came down to the former LSU teammates. Both will be earning starter workloads from Day 1, which isn’t the case for Taylor, Gibson and all but a few receivers. Burrow has a higher ceiling due to the Bengals’ weapons and atrocious defense, but their offensive line and play calling could hold him back. Edwards-Helaire has a higher floor because of Mahomes and Andy Reid, but it’s hard to see him approaching any records with so many mouths to feed.

I really think Burrow has a chance to break Mayfield’s rookie touchdown record of 27 and Andrew Lucks yardage record of 4,374. If that happens, it’s a wrap.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Chase Young

Compared to the offensive rookie class, this year’s defenders seems a bit underwhelming — except for Chase Young. The potentially transcendent pass rushing prospect will make his presence felt early and often, like his Ohio State teammate Nick Bosa did last year.

Coach of the Year: Mike Tomlin

This award is perhaps the dumbest of them all. It’s completely narrative driven and rarely awards the actual best coaching performance. I could make a strong case for literally 20 coaches, so there’s no sense in listing all the candidates.

Mike Tomlin could have won this award last season even though Pittsburgh failed to make the postseason. He navigated a season in which Antonio Brown left in the offseason, Ben Roethlisberger went down in Week 2, and a duck and an asshole played 14 games at quarterback. With a healthy Big Ben, I have Pittsburgh taking down Baltimore in the AFC North and returning to AFC contention. Tomlin has to win this award in that scenario.

Comeback Player of the Year: Cam Newton

I’ll say this: If Cam Newton plays as well as I think he can, he damn well better win this award. The Panthers, the franchise he built and saved from irrelevancy, gave up on him. He’s dealt with various injuries for 18 months. He had to wait until July to find a team, and even then was forced to sign for less guaranteed money than fucking Nathan Peterman. That is nothing short of blatant racism and while this award won’t do a damn thing to make up for that, it’s literally the least the media can do.

Breakout Star: Dionte Johnson, Pittsburgh WR

Off-the-Street Contributor: Logan Thomas, Washington TE

Hidden Star (late breakout): Antonio Gibson, Washington RB

Biggest Surprise: Los Angeles Rams

Biggest Disappointment: Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts

First Overall Pick: New York Giants

Bold Predictions I don’t have the guts to pick: Atlanta steals San Francisco’s playoff spot; Burrow, Bengals steal WC spot; Cam Newton wins MVP; Roethlisberger leads Pittsburgh to Super Bowl

Playoff Predictions

AFC Championship Game: Chiefs over Ravens

Kansas City seems to have Baltimore’s number. I believe Lamar Jackson is an above average thrower of the football, but when this game inevitably turns into a shoot-out, give me Mahomes over Jackson; Tyreek Hill over Marquise Brown; Travis Kelce over Mark Andrews; Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman over Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay.

NFC Championship Game: Seahawks over Cowboys

The Cowboys pass rush is incredible, but nobody aside from Deshaun Watson can dance in the pocket quite like Russell Wilson. DK Metcalf has at least one “I’m a fucking star” touchdown catch and Jamal Adams stares up at Jerry Jones saying “Guess you should’ve traded for me”.

Super Bowl: Chiefs over Seahawks

Pete Carroll versus Andy Reid can only go one way: Seattle takes an early lead and tries to establish the run. Mahomes gets hot and KC storms into the lead. Wilson does Wilson things and keeps Seattle in the game, but Mahomes cannot be denied.

I said this once: the sooner we accept Mahomes is on track to become the GOAT, the better.