My 2018-19 NBA Awards and All-NBA Team Selections

The 2018-19 NBA regular season is officially over. Some crazy shit happened this year: the Bucks won the most games and Giannis Antetokounmpo evolved into arguably the best player in the world, James Harden scored 30 points in 32 straight games and averaged over 36 points per game, LeBron James missed the playoffs, Anthony Davis tried to force a trade to the Lakers and failed in embarrassing fashion, Magic Johnson impulsively quit his Lakers job to tweet more, the Sixers traded Markelle Fultz for a heavily-protected first round pick, Jimmy Butler whined his way out of Minnesota, Carmelo Anthony was a Rocket (remember that?), Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki retired, Vince Carter did not, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant almost fought each other during a game, Rajon Rondo and Chris Paul actually fought each other, Kyrie Irving said a lot of weird things, the Nets and Magic made the playoffs, Russell Westbrook put up 20 points, 20 rebounds and 20 assists in the same game, and apparently Durant, Irving and Zion Williamson are all going to the Knicks this summer – is that a lot?

As standard procedure after a regular season, it’s time to hand out some awards. This is the first time I’ve actually done considerable research and fully written out my picks for these awards and the All-NBA teams. It’s going to take a few years to figure out how I want to answer questions like: How much does team success factor in? How many games played is enough? How much do certain statistics matter? When all things are equal, what is the tiebreaker? We’ll see how this goes…

Rookie of the Year

1. Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks
2. Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
3. Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks (DeAndre Ayton, Phoenix Suns)

First of all, this year’s class of rookies is historically good. FiveThirtyEight’s calculations rated the top five of the 2018 draft class as the best of this century thus far. While I think that claim is absurd considering the 2003 class (LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade), it does prove the top of this class has been truly exceptional in their debut campaigns.

Doncic was sensational from start to finish this season, living up to, even exceeding the immense preseason hype. That’s where Doncic separates himself from his top competitor, Young. Young has been terrific in the second half of the season, averaging 24.3 points, 9.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game over his last 25 games. But Doncic has averaged 21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game for the entire season. Both these players are the face of their franchise and future stars, maybe even superstars. It’s rather poetic that these two were traded for each other on draft night. Young gave Doncic a serious run for his money, but Doncic is the clear winner of this award.

The next tier of rookies is rather deep. I considered Ayton, Marvin Bagley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Landry Shamet, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton and Mitchell Robinson for the third spot. Ultimately, I had to go with Ayton due to his season long consistency, but I don’t feel particularly great about it. If the Knicks unleashed Robinson earlier in the season or if Bagley/Jackson did not have injury-shortened seasons, I would have voted one of those three ahead of Ayton.

Fuck it. Robinson is a stud. He was first among rookies in Win Shares and second in VORP (value over replacement player). I looked at the per-36 numbers for all rookie seasons in NBA history. Robinson’s stellar season got buried behind the Knicks tanking efforts, but these results will prove my case.

• His 11.2 rebounds per-36 minutes ranks 16th ever; his 4.7 offensive rebounds ranks 4th ever.
• His 4.3 blocks per-36 minutes ranks second ever.
• Robinson posted the fifth highest Box Plus/Minus EVER, behind Michael Jordan, Alvan Adams, David Robinson, and Chris Paul.
• His field goal percentage and effective field goal percentages are the highest ever (BY OVER 10%!), and his true shooting percentage is the highest ever (by 7%!).

If the Knicks played Robinson more early in the season, imagine the numbers this kid would have put up. New York discovered a budding star in Robinson.

Coach of the Year

1. Mike Budenholzer, Milwaukee Bucks
2. Doc Rivers, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Michael Malone, Denver Nuggets

Last season, the Bucks finished seventh in the Eastern Conference with a record of 44-38 and a net rating of -0.3. This season, they rose to the league’s beset record with over 60 wins. The Bucks efficiency differential of 9.6 tops the league by nearly two points over Golden State. Furthermore, the Bucks won a whopping 45 games by double digits, which has been done seven times before – all by eventual NBA champions.

Actually, throw out the numbers; here’s what you need to know: Budenholzer unleashed Giannis into a modern version of Shaquille O’Neal (except with the terrifying addition of perimeter skills), revitalized the careers of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez and turned the Bucks into an absolute juggernaut. The other candidates – Rivers, Malone, Nate McMillan of the Pacers – allowed their teams to vastly outperform expectations, but they didn’t shift the power balance of an entire conference.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
3. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans

According to Basketball Reference, Gobert leads the league in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Box Plus/Minus, ranks second in blocks and third in Defensive Rating. He’s also the defending winner of this award. That’s good enough for me.

Giannis ranks just behind Gobert in Defensive Box Plus/Minus (second) and Defensive Win Shares (third), while ranking higher (second) in Defensive Rating. According to NBA.com, Giannis ranks first in Defensive Win Shares and eighth in Defensive Rating. That’s good enough for second place.

As far as my third place vote, I’d have been better off letting my dog pick for me. I narrowed down the candidates to Myles Turner, Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, Paul George and Jrue Holiday. I went with Holiday because I think he’s criminally underrated (the players agree) and I can’t shake his dominance of Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers in the last year’s playoffs from my mind.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lou Williams, Los Angeles Clippers
2. Montrezl Harrell, Los Angeles Clippers
3. Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers

In all honesty, I wanted to pick someone else. Williams has already won this award twice, including last season. I don’t understand why he doesn’t start either; the claim that he plays better off the bench is not evident in the statistics – he is vastly more efficient as a starter than a bench player. However, I can’t overlook the fact that Williams is the main reason why the Clippers remain relevant and a playoff team, despite shipping off most of their best players over the past two seasons. He’s fourth in the NBA in 4th-quarter scoring at 7.7 points per game. Simply put, Sweet Lou has been too damn good to ignore.

Harrell and Sabonis have been key rotational bigs for their teams as well. I can’t imagine the top two finishers for this award have come from the same team many times before, but this has been a historically weird season. Had Derrick Rose played more games, I’d have strongly considered him for the award. Williams, Harrell and Sabonis all have 20 or more games under their belts than Rose. There’s a cliche saying, most commonly in football, that availability is the best ability – that’s especially true of rotational players.

Most Improved Player

1. Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors
2. D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets
3. De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

Siakam did not run away with this honor by any stretch, but he’s the clear choice. He averaged 17.0 ppg, 3.1 apg and 6.9 rpg in 32.0 minutes per game this season, up from 7.3 ppg, 2.5 apg, 4.0 rpg in 20.7 minutes a game in 2017-18. His greatest improvement came via his efficiency. Siakam increased his true shooting percentage from 54.9% to 62.8%, his 3-point percentage from 22% to 35.8% and his free throw percentage from 62.1% to 78.2%. His net rating of 10.6 ranks seventh in the league among players who’ve played 50 games. But perhaps his greatest achievement has been convincing Raptors fans that Kawhi bolting this summer for Los Angeles might not be the worst thing in the world.

My choice of Siakam boils down to one simple idea that I had been thinking about for awhile, but finally could put it into words after reading Dan Devine’s awards picks on The Ringer. Russell and Fox (as well as Paul George, Buddy Hield, Zach Lavine, etc.) improved tremendously from a season ago. However, those players were all relatively high draft picks and finally became the players we expected. No one expected Siakam, the late first round selection from New Mexico State, to turn into a rising superstar.

Most Valuable Player

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2. James Harden, Houston Rockets
3. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
4. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
5. Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder

Any way you slice it, this year’s MVP race is incredibly close. Giannis and Harden both deserve to win after truly extraordinary campaigns. It’s a shame one of these players won’t win the award, which I don’t think I’ve fully realized yet.

We can compare statistics:

	PPG	RPG	APG	PER	WS	Box +/-	TS%
Giannis	27.7	12.5	5.9	30.9	14.4	10.8	64.4
Harden	36.1	6.6	7.5	30.6	15.2	11.7	61.6

We can compare narratives:

• Best player on the best team? Giannis
• Saved his team’s season? Harden
• Became the next Shaq? Giannis
• Historic statistical season? Both, but mostly Harden

In many ways, this MVP race was reminiscent of the 2016-17 duel between Russell Westbrook and James Harden himself (except in the opposite role). Westbrook had the historical statistics (first triple-double season since Oscar) and the influential post-KD narrative, while Harden had the team success and his own impressive statistics (2nd in PPG behind Westbrook, led league in APG). I unofficially voted Westbrook that season because 1) the Thunder don’t make the playoffs unless Westbrook does what he did and 2) when we look back on the 2016-17 season, say, twenty years from now, Westbrook we will be the one thing we remember about that season. If I follow that same logic, technically I would have to vote Harden this year, right? Well, there are a couple of key differences between 2017 and 2019 that make Giannis a better MVP candidate.

1) 60 wins versus 55 wins: There’s a much greater historical significance to reaching 60 wins as opposed to 55. Only 77 teams in NBA history have reached the 60 win plateau, while 206 teams have achieved 55 wins. Team success has an impact in the MVP race without a doubt, but being on the best team in the league (2019 Bucks) is simply more valuable than being on the third seed in a conference (2017 Rockets).

2) “Saved season” narrative: There have been only two seasons in NBA history where a player posted a usage percentage above 40%: Westbrook in 2017 and Harden in 2019. The rationale for each player’s insane usage percentage is that their team absolutely needed it – and it’s true to an extent. The reality is that the Thunder do not make the playoffs without Westbrook’s hero ball that season, while the Rockets more than likely still make the playoffs this season (albeit at a lower seed).

Westbrook’s teammates were incapable of creating any offense without him; Harden’s teammates were only incapacitated during a 16-game stretch without Chris Paul, yet Harden’s scoring numbers hardly dipped when Paul returned from injury. Westbrook has a reputation for being a stat-padder, but look at Harden staying in the game during a blowout win solely to keep his 30-point streak alive.

3) Historical statistical season: Westbrook became the first player to average a triple double since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62. Harden became the fourth player to average 36 points per game in a season and achieved many other scoring anomalies. I understand triple doubles have depreciated in value in recent years, but scoring numbers have too, to a greater extent. An NBA-record thirteen players scored 50 points in a game this season, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick Rose, freakin’ Jamal Crawford. Westbrook did something that people literally thought was impossible. Harden did something that, while impressive, has been done before.

All that said, I’m voting for Giannis. He’s more impactful on defense, where he may also win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s capable of ridiculous offensive nights, like last month against Philadelphia when he had 52 points, 16 rebounds and 7 assists or last week against Philadelphia when he had 45 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 blocks (including 4 on Embiid).

The Bucks utter dominance this season has been downplayed by the media, partly because they play in Milwaukee and partly because no one really knows yet if it will translate to playoff success. This is the thesis of my Giannis vote: he’s the best player on the league’s best team (in a league where Golden State has five All-Stars). I keep going back to another part of Devine’s piece“for as many reasons as I can think of to vote for Harden, I can’t come up with any that feel strong enough to compel me to vote against Giannis”. With all due respect to Harden, I’m voting Giannis and I’m not going to lose any sleep over it.

Since winning back-to-back MVPs in 2014 and 2015 and especially since Kevin Durant’s arrival, Curry elite production has brushed aside. As many All Stars as the Warriors have, Curry is the breaking point of the team. Golden State has gone 5-7 without Curry this season, indefensible for a team that in the midst of one of the greatest stretches in the history of the sport.

Where would the Nuggets be without Jokic? Probably not even in the playoffs and certainly not one of the best teams in the Western Conference. Jokic is averaging 19.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game this season.

Somehow, Paul George has essentially replaced Kevin Durant’s production in Oklahoma City. He was even in the conversation for winning the award before a late season injury/slump dropped him out, although his chances of winning the award were slim at best.

Some other notable players: Damian Lillard (carried Portland to top-3 seed despite injured teammates), Joel Embiid (stayed healthy, excellent defensively), Kevin Durant (typical Durant season), LeBron James and Anthony Davis (great stats, but so much losing and extra baggage).

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All NBA Teams

First Team

G: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

G: James Harden, Houston Rockets

F: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

F: Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder

C: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

Notice any similarities between these five players? They were all in my top five for the MVP award, so I don’t think I need to explain these any further.

Second Team

G: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

G: Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics

G: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

F: Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors

F: Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons

F: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

C: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid, Durant and Lillard would have been sixth, seventh and eighth in my MVP voting, so those choices are rather self-explanatory. Initially, I did not plan on including Irving on the second team, but his advanced numbers are too impressive. Among guards, he ranks third in PER (24.3) and Box Plus/Minus (6.4), fourth in Win Shares (9.1) and fifth in VORP (4.7).

Russ replaces Kyrie because he cared more and he was a better teammate. Initially, I did have Russ over Kyrie but I was swayed by Kyrie’s advanced stats. Bill Simmons talked at length about this on his latest podcast which was one reason that swung my mind, but really this is what I should have done from the beginning.

The second forward spot was the toughest decision I faced throughout this entire process. My heart said LeBron, but he only played 55 games and that disastrous stretch after activating playoff intensity was inexcusable. I considered Kawhi Leonard, who was excellent this season… when he played. He sat out 22 games without suffering any significant injury and the Raptors went 17-5 without him – that has to count for something. Griffin averaged 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game this year while leading the Pistons to a somewhat surprising playoff berth. I decided to reward Griffin’s career year and 75 games played instead of one of the superstars’ half-assed seasons.

My primary reasoning for Griffin over LeBron was the Pistons making the playoffs and games played. I decided that the Pistons winning 41 games in the East (only four more wins than the Lakers) is not sufficient evidence to place Griffin ahead of LeBron James. LeBron, I’m sorry I ever doubted you, even if it was for less than a day in an unofficial vote on my tiny blog.

Third Team

G: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

G: Kyrie Irving, Boston Celtics

G: DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs

F: LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

F: Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons

F: Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors

C: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

Westbrook’s shooting struggles this season (42.8 FG%, 46.8 eFG%) were well documented, but the man still averaged a triple double and plays harder than any player in the league than Westbrook. The last guard spot came down to DeRozan and Ben Simmons, who both excelled in supporting role for playoff teams. Ultimately, DeRozan’s defensive emergence and success as a point guard early in the season (in wake of Dejounte Murray’s season-ending injury) earn him the last guard spot. DeRozan elevated his game by increasing his versatility, while Simmons did not. Bradley Beal and Kemba Walker both played 82 games (a rarity these days) and were sensational, but neither player could carry their teams into the playoffs in a top-heavy conference (it only took 41 wins guys).

I chose Gobert over Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis to reward him simply giving-a-shit this season. Towns was dominant after the All-Star break, but allowed Butler to basically bully him for the first month of the season. Davis threw away an entire season while holding his entire team hostage and failed miserably. While Towns and Davis are both better players, Gobert’s defensive dominance (likely top two DPOY finish) and his team success are enough to garner the last All-NBA spot.

Despite the lackadaisical and uninspiring seasons from LeBron and Kawhi, they were both spectacular when they played. LeBron averaged 27.4 points, 8.5 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game this year, while Kawhi put up 26.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. The All-NBA teams are supposed to be a rough estimation of the best 15 players in a given season; in a season where no other forward really challenged them, it would be a crime to leave either of these players off that list.