Oct 20 2019
Off

I’ve been crazy busy with bowling the last couple weekends, so I’ve been unable to write many previews. No bowling for me this weekend means there’s plenty of time to talk football before Week 7. Plus, Scott and I get back to our weekly picks after a week off. (My unofficial picks last week would’ve went 1-4, so I’m glad we took a break.)

Multiple divisional battles headline Week 7.

The Colts and Texans will fight for the AFC South lead. The Titans are falling apart at the seams, while the Jaguars just traded their best player — it’s a two team race. One key for this game is that Darius Leonard returns for the Colts. He’ll test the Texans’ suddenly competent offensive line.

The Eagles and Cowboys will do the same for the NFC East. Both teams are dealing with a litany of injuries. Amari Cooper, Tyron Smith, La’el Collins and Byron Jones have been listed as questionable all week but should play Sunday. Sam Darnold did whatever he wanted against the Cowboys last week, so one can only imagine what Carson Wentz could be capable of this week. On the flip side, Philadelphia’s secondary is atrocious. As long as Dallas doesn’t try to establish the run, this game should be feature an explosive aerial display from both teams.

The Vikings and Lions aren’t battling for the NFC North lead, but it’s a basically a must-win game for Detroit. The would fall to 2-3-1 with a loss and likely need to finish the season 8-2 to have a chance at the playoffs. Minnesota, meanwhile, could tie the Packers for the division lead with a win (and a Packers loss).

Can Oakland take advantage of a golden opportunity?

The Raiders have two huge things going in their favor this week. First, they face the Packers this week, who have an injury report almost as long as War and Peace. The Packers top three receivers could all miss this game. Secondly, the Raiders only trailed the Chiefs by half a game for the division and then Patrick Mahomes injured his knee. He will miss at least three weeks and most likely through Kansas City’s Week 12 bye. The Raiders can seize control of the suddenly wide-open AFC West, but that starts with a win against the depleted Packers.

Does Chicago’s offense have life after their bye week?

Mitchell Trubisky is likely to return this week and Bears fans are hoping his return mirrors Darnold’s last week. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily all season. Hyped rookie David Montgomery has never gotten going and the perennially underrated Allen Robinson somehow downgraded from Blake Bortles. It won’t be easy against a terrific New Orleans defense, but the Bears need to show a spark offensively before the playoffs slip away completely.

What is the emotional fallout of the Jalen Ramsey trade?

Ramsey will surely provide a tremendous boost to the Rams’ secondary, but perhaps more importantly, he’ll inject a much needed jolt of energy. The Rams had lost three straight games and Jared Goff has, well, sucked. Ramsey might not solve the Rams’ biggest weaknesses on paper, but it’s impossible to quantify the emotional impact of the trade. That’s why football isn’t played on spreadsheets. (I’ve always wanted to say that.)

On the other side, trading away your best player typically sinks the morale of a locker room. Leonard Fournette has been in his feels on social media all week. However, Gardner Minshew’s presence might be all Jacksonville needs. The Ewing Theory (where a team inexplicably improves without their best player) has been a theme of 2019 (ex. Bryce Harper and the Nationals). Maybe the Jaguars start a Nationals-like run of their own sans-Ramsey?

The Bills are going to the Super Bowl.

Can we just take a moment to acknowledge the fact that the Bills (THE BILLS!) are 17 (SEVENTEEN!) point favorites this week. I mean, it’s against the Dolphins, but come on. Let me have this.

The last time Buffalo was favored by that many points was December of 1992. The Bills have been favored by at least 14 points in only four seasons (1990-1993), but went to the Super Bowl in all four. That’s 4/4 or 100% for you nerds out there.

You heard it here first: the Bills are going to the Super Bowl. It’s mathematically guaranteed. (Technically, it’s also mathematically guaranteed that we lose in the Super Bowl.)

Now let’s get to this week’s picks. As always we are using the Vegas consensus lines.

Week 5: Scott 3-2; Nolan 2-2-1

Last week: n/a

Season: Scott 7-13; Nolan 9-10-1

Scott’s Picks

LA Rams -3 at Atlanta

I know, I know. The Rams haven’t looked anything like the team we saw last year. I’m not sure what is wrong with that offense, but I think this scrubby Falcons defense might just be the answer to everything that ails them. Hell, the Titans actually looked like a competent offense against the Falcons, so I think one of the best offensive coaches in the league will be able to get it back on track here. 

San Francisco -10 at Washington

I’m finally a believer in the 49ers. Great coach, solid defense and possibly a top-15 QB. That is always a winning combination (one the Titans will never have again in my lifetime). I think this team is for real. Also, the Redskins are probably mad about accidentally winning against the Dolphins last week, so I expect the tank to be back in effect on Sunday. 

Side note: I go back and forth on this quite often, but I think the Niners have the best uniforms in the NFL and maybe all of professional sports. 

Detroit +2.5 vs. Minnesota

I’m coming around on this Lions team. They were two godawful calls away from being atop the NFC North standings, which is just another reminder that poor officiating is completely destroying the NFL in almost every way imaginable. I digress, though. 

Cousins is coming off of an impressive performance last week so I think he will respond how he typically does from a great game with an absolute stinker. The Vikings are juggernauts at home, but kind of trash on the road. Give me the Lions in the Motor City.

LA Chargers +2.5 at Tennessee

Speaking of the Titans, there is absolutely zero chance that we win this game. The idea that Tannehill, an aggressively mediocre quarterback, is going to get the offense going is absolutely comical. We have also been dominated in the all-time series against the Chargers. I think it’s the curse of Whisenhunt hanging over this series and the entire franchise. I’m an unapologetic Mariota lover and will never forgive the Titans for screwing him up. I might pick against the Titans out of principle for the remainder of the season.

New Orleans +4 at Chicago

I’m taking the points and running here. The Chicago offense is an abomination, regardless of who is at QB. This should be a really low scoring game between two great defenses. I shall not watch a second of it, but I’ll trust the Saints to keep getting it done in the absence of Brees.

Nolan’s Picks

Houston +1 at Indianapolis

I feel like I’m going against the grain here. Sports media absolutely loves the Colts. It’s kind of unhealthy how obsessed guys like Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd are with the Colts. Don’t get me wrong, I love what Chris Ballard and Frank Reich are building in Indianapolis. But, at the end of the day, this is Deshaun Watson versus Jacoby Brissett.

Additionally, Houston might not have a problem at offensive line anymore. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been sacked in two weeks. He’s thrown for 706 yards and 6 touchdowns in those games on 9.41 yards per attempt. He’s also ran for a pair of scores. I don’t think he’s slowing down this week.

Arizona +3 at NY Giants

Kyler Murray is absolutely rolling right now. He torched Atlanta for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air last week. Granted, the Falcons defense might be the league’s worst, but it’s not like the Giants’ is much better. Arizona will get stud cornerback Patrick Peterson back, but this should still be a higher scoring contest. It could resemble a pseudo-Big 12 game, which Kyler seemed to thrive in (after all, he did win the Heisman).

San Francisco -10 at Washington

We have a very good team versus a very bad team. I will happily take the very good team, especially considering the line is well below two touchdowns.

Baltimore +3 at Seattle

Both Baltimore and Seattle teams have a reputation as defensive-minded teams, but this season has been quite the contrary. Seattle and Baltimore’s defenses rank as below average (18th and 19th in DVOA, respectively) while their offenses rank 3rd and 4th in DVOA, respectively.

Russell Wilson is the MVP of the league through six weeks, but Seattle isn’t blowing teams out of the water. The Ravens have the best rushing offense in the league, which will enable them to keep the ball out of Wilson’s hands. I think the Ravens keep this one close and probably even win outright.

NY Jets +9.5 vs New England

The Jets quietly have an average defense, while injuries have stripped the Patriots offense down to Julian Edelman and an aggressively mediocre collection of running backs. (James White is alright, though.) I’m not sure I trust the Sam Darnold and the offense yet. However, the fanbase has a renewed sense of hope after last week’s upset of Dallas. The stadium will be rocking and I think the Jets can keep it close. (5% chance they pull off the upset straight up.)

Posted inFootball NFL

50 thoughts on “Week 7 Preview and Picks with Scott Erland”

Comments are closed.