It has been 253 days since the Oakland A’s drafted the Oklahoma outfielder, Kyler Murray, ninth overall in the 2018 MLB draft. In those 253 days, Murray reached historic levels of success… in football. The A’s allowed him to play out the season as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback, where he followed in the footsteps of the NFL-bound, Heisman-winning Baker Mayfield. This season, Murray himself won the Heisman and led Oklahoma back to the College Football Playoff. Murray and Mayfield’s statistics during their Heisman seasons are shockingly similar:
| G | Comp | Att | Comp % | Yards | TD | Int | Y/A | Rtg | |
| Baker Mayfield 2017 | 14 | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 | 11.5 | 198.9 |
| Kyler Murray 2018 | 14 | 260 | 377 | 69 | 4361 | 42 | 7 | 11.6 | 199.2 |
All season, Murray was adamant that he would return to baseball after the football season. On the night before the Heisman ceremony Murray seemed to walk back on his baseball commitment, smiling and saying he was “taking it one day at at time” (3:10). In January, Murray officially declared for the NFL draft, but that just delayed making a commitment. Yesterday, Murray finally made a decision:
The entire story, from the day the A’s drafted him until now, fascinates me. I’m too young to fully appreciate what Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders were capable of as multi-sport athletes. Murray’s dual sport accomplishments thus far are arguably more impressive, considering the difficulty of playing quarterback. Watching Murray dominate college football this season, as a first round draft selection in baseball, was truly incredible.
I have a few thoughts and still unanswered questions about the whole story:
The Money Myth
Conventional wisdom would tell you that there is more money to be made in professional baseball than professional football. In today’s NFL, where top quarterbacks are paid handsomely, this belief is a myth.
Upfront, Murray will earn more on his NFL rookie contract. According to Over the Cap, the first overall selection is slated for a contract with a total value of about $35.5 million over four years with a $23.8 million signing bonus. The 32nd overall selection comes with a contract worth $10.1 million total and a $5.4 million signing bonus. So, if Murray is drafted in the first round, his signing bonus is guaranteed to be worth more than the $4.66 million one the A’s gave him.
After four or five seasons (depending on if his 5th year option is picked up), he would become eligible for a contract extension, where he can command top dollar. Quarterback salaries continue to rise. In fact, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Patrick Mahomes is expected to sign a record $200 million extension in 2020. In five seasons, quarterback contracts will be astronomical.
However, had Murray chosen the professional baseball route, his large contract would have to wait. He will need to play at least one season in Minor League Baseball, especially considering he likely hasn’t played much baseball recently. Then he’d have to wait until six years into his pro career to sign a big money deal due to the league’s arbitration rules. Even if Murray became an absolute superstar, he would still struggle to command a contract worth as much as a top quarterback. As pitchers and catchers are already starting to report to training camp, MLB superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned.
If money was the driving factor behind Murray’s decision, he made the right choice. The earning potential in professional football is significantly higher upfront than in baseball. He will be able to reach free agency (or sign a contract extension) sooner. Additionally, there will be no shortage of suitors for his talents when he reaches the open market, unlike the current predicaments for Harper and Machado. Of course, this assumes Murray would succeed in both sports.
Why did the A’s let Murray play football?
This might be the single most interesting question of the past year for me. I’m currently reading Moneyball, Michael Lewis’ story of how Oakland A’s GM, Billy Beane, tried to take the risk out of the baseball draft by using advanced statistics and revolutionary scouting methods. Beane has been known to draft some odd balls; in 2002, Beane took Jeremy Brown, a projected 15th round pick at best, in the first round. However, he did so because he believed Brown was a first round talent. Beane thought the same of Murray and took him earlier than anyone predicted.
So why would the guy who wants to eliminate risk with draft picks allow his first round pick to play football, the riskiest of sports? There’s two major risks: (1) Murray could suffer a significant injury and (2) Murray could become a star and choose the NFL over the MLB. It turns out the latter came to fruition, and honestly, it became the most likely outcome the second the A’s let him play football.
I don’t see the upside for allowing him to play football for a year. Perhaps Beane’s thinking was that Murray’s season of college football would bring significant media attention that would then carry over to the A’s when Murray comes back to baseball. Even then, why risk losing your top draft pick for some extra media buzz? I don’t think we will ever get a proper answer to this mystery, and it will haunt me forever.
What does this mean for the MLB?
The Ringers’s Kevin Clark made light of the issue:
It’s only a joke, but it highlights a real issue in professional baseball. The MLB has a serious issue attracting young athletes.
On one hand, Kyler Murray’s situation represents an aberration, not the norm. Major League Baseball does not need to worry about it’s draft picks becoming Heisman-winning NFL prospects.
However, with the emergence of social media, young athletes are aware of their brand and want to grow their self-image more than ever before. While the NFL is not the best league at promoting their stars, they’ve certainly done a better job than the MLB. Mike Trout is a once-in-a-generation star and plays in Los Angeles, yet how many people would recognize him if they ran into him in a Starbucks?
No one knows exactly how to solve baseball’s dilemma, or else someone would have already. I do wonder how the reaction would have been different if Murray had turned down, say the New York Yankees, instead of the Oakland Athletics.
Where does Murray get drafted?
It seems impossible Murray slips out of the first round, or even the first ten picks, especially after fully committing to football. Bleacher Report‘s Matt Miller has a wild conspiracy theory:
At this point, anything is possible. Honestly, I don’t know who to believe or what to think about the draft. I love draft day surprises more than almost anything in sports, so I hope the mystery continues until April 25th.
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