Let’s set the scene: My fantasy team leads by a half-dozen points as my opponent’s final two players are nearing the end of their game. I still have Tyler Lockett on SNF and Emmanuel Sanders on MNF. My win percentage, according to ESPN, is over 95%.
However, #Analytics can’t account for my team’s woeful luck. I sent a message to a group text with my leaguemates at 19:49 EST: “If Dak hits CeeDee for a TD, I may never recover.” Less than one minute of real time later, Prescott hit Lamb for the game-winning touchdown and my team, in fact, never recovered.
My team is now 1-5 on the season — despite having the third-most total points in the league — with losses of 3.9, 0.96, 5.5, and (last week) 3.0 points. The only non-close loss came because my opponent scored 143 points, the second-highest total on the season.
I know literally none of you care about my fantasy team. I’d like to say I don’t either. I shouldn’t care; after all, it only brings me pain. But that tiniest bit of hope that I cling to every single Monday night keeps me coming back. Football is a drug.
Onto Week 7! As always, we are using the we are using the Vegas Insider Consensus lines.
Last week
- Lauren: 3-2
- Scott: 4-1
- Nolan: 3-2
Season
- Lauren: 15-14-1
- Scott: 16-12-2
- Nolan: 14-15-1
Lauren’s Picks
Cincinnati +6 at Baltimore
Tennessee +4.5 vs. Kansas City
Las Vegas -2.5 vs. Philadelphia
L.A. Rams -16.5 vs. Detroit
San Francisco -3.5 vs. Indianapolis
Scott’s Picks
Cincinnati +6.5 at Baltimore
Again, this line just feels too high. I know Baltimore has been on a roll, most impressively destroying the Chargers last week. But the Bengals are good enough to keep this within a possession. And the Ravens are due an off game. I’ll bank on that being today.
Kansas City -4.5 at Tennessee
This pick is less about my lack of confidence in the Titans and more about my unshakable confidence in the Chiefs. The Titans are coming off of a huge emotional win over the Bills in a game they had no business winning. The Chiefs aren’t going to have any problem scoring against this injury-riddled defense, though. This should be a shootout, but I have my doubts that the Titans are going to be able to keep up today.
New England -7 vs. NY Jets
This is a borderline must-win game for the Patriots, and I think they will get it done against this crappy Jets team. These two played in Week 2, and the Pats cruised to a 25-6 road win. I look for a similar outcome this week.
Las Vegas -3 vs. Philadelphia
I’m going to continue to ride the Raiders. I can’t help but feel like Gruden’s departure is a good thing for the Raiders, and not just for the obvious reasons. His vice grip on every aspect of the franchise probably didn’t facilitate the most healthy culture possible. On the other side, Philly doesn’t even really care about this season, so I’ll roll the dice with the Raiders.
Chicago +12 at Tampa Bay
This line is too high, especially with the number of players sitting out for the Bucs. The Bears defense is legitimately good, too. This one could look silly in hindsight because of how explosive the Bucs offense can be. However, this line just seems way too high.
Nolan’s Picks
N.Y. Giants +3 vs. Carolina
Sam Darnold makes his return to MetLife Stadium, but he’s no different than the man who left.
Atlanta -2 at Miami
When the city of Atlanta has good sports karma going, you just gotta ride the wave. (Related: I may have traded for Calvin Ridley this week.)
Green Bay -8 vs. Washington
Aaron Rodgers or Taylor Heinicke? Hmmm….
L.A. Rams -16.5 vs. Detroit
This is a big ol’ line, but the Rams organization will be chomping at the bit to not only keep Jared Goff winless without Sean McVay as his head coach, but embarrass him. (Although wouldn’t it be hilarious if Goff’s first career victory without McVay came against McVay?)
New Orleans -4.5 at Seattle
Sean Payton + off a bye + a terrible Seahawks defense = Good Jameis™️ + a NOLA win
Five Things to Watch
1. Flag Football in Tennessee
There won’t be a competent defense on either sideline in this one, which makes for one hell of a game to watch. My only “take” here is that Derrick Henry, for all his folk hero lore, is not an MVP candidate. From the first article I wrote on this site, Mission Impossible: A Running Back Winning the MVP in the Modern NFL:
“A running back would need to capture the media’s attention and divert voters from the true meaning of the most valuable player award. He would have to build on [Adrian] Peterson’s unforgettable 2012 season. In the modern NFL, he would need to (1) have the league’s best record, (2) play in a big market (3) carry a mediocre at best quarterback behind a poor offensive line, and (4) break nearly every rushing record imaginable. I would put the odds at about 1,000,000-to-1, roughly the same as Tom Brady ever retiring.”
2. Zach Wilson vs. Belichick II
Darnold Wilson threw four interceptions in his first start against the Patriots. Will the rook see ghosts in Foxboro or does he have more tenacity than his predecessor?
3. AFC North Supremacy
It’s Week 7 and the Bengals, the Cincinnati Bengals, have a chance to take control of the AFC North with a win in Baltimore. Few believe the Bengals will actually do it, as evidenced by the 6.5-point line in favor of the Ravens, but maybe Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase can use their chemistry to pull off the upset.
4. Car Crash Potential
I must admit: This is a bit of a sadistic inclusion. Tua Tagovailoa’s future in Miami appears to be on thin ice. The Falcons are, well, the Falcons, but perhaps can mooch off the good karma the baseball team has provided. Or, more likely, the Falcons suffer the consequence of the baseball team’s insistence on continuing the insensitive chant.
5. What NOT To Watch
Who the hell allowed Colts-49ers to stay on Sunday Night Football? I thought the league could flex these games out?
There must be consequences for this travesty. Now, I’m not evil. I don’t think anyone should lose their jobs over this mistake. I do have a suitable punishment for the responsible party: They have to watch the game in its entirety.