I don’t give a damn if the NFL added a 17th game, this is the quarter-season mark — which means this is the perfect time to take a step back,
1. Kyler Murray: Superstar
The baseball playoffs have arrived, and so has Murray. Billed as a three-team race between the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers, but it’s Murray’s Cardinals who find themselves atop the division at 4-0 after trouncing the Rams in Los Angeles.
Concerns about Kliff Kingsbury’s lack of creativity haven’t disappeared, but Murray could turn sparkling water into Mountain Dew. (I don’t know how you people drink that La Croix garbage.) Offensive additions Rodney Hudson, Rondale Moore and AJ Green have been revelations, and the defense has been competent.
Murray is the undeniable MVP through four weeks; he’s done everything for Arizona. I don’t know how long this high will last, but the league is better with Stewie Griffin playing like this.
2. The Cowboys are Dem Boyz
Dallas’ lone loss came on a last-second field goal to the defending champs on opening night. Dak Prescott has been sensational in his return from last season’s ghastly ankle injury, completing over 75% of his passes to the tune of eight yards per attempt. There’s been room for everyone on this offense to eat; Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliot, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Tony Pollard have all had moments of greatness this season.
The offense was supposed to be good, great even. Expectations were much lower on the other side of the ball, but their defense has been a revelation thus far — and by a revelation, I mean pretty decent. Trevon Diggs has emerged as a potential elite cornerback, racking up five interceptions through four games. I don’t know what position Micah Parsons plays, but there’s clearly something there.
With an elite offense — fourth in EPA/play and first in success rate, per rbsdm.com — the defense only needs to not stink. Based on what we’ve seen so far, the Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They are my pick to earn the bye in the NFC.
3. Buffalo Bullies
The Bills Week 1 loss to the Steelers will go down as the most incomprehensible result of the season. Since that game, the Bills are 3-0 with wins of 35-0, 43-21 and 40-0. Let me repeat those scores again: 35-0 over Miami. 43-21 over Washington. 40-0 over Houston. Granted, those teams aren’t good — at all — but great teams beat the snot out of bad teams.
Aside from Week 3, the Bills offense hasn’t resembled the juggernaut from 2020. Whether or not they return to such levels of proficiency is to be determined. There’s no need to speculate if the defense is legit because the Bills travel to Kansas City in Week 5. Talk about a litmus test.
4. Don’t Forget about Patrick Mahomes
Speaking of the Chiefs: Yes, the Chiefs are 2-2 and in last place in their division — a Browns-Ravens-Chargers slate isn’t exactly the easiest schedule imaginable — but it’s not their quarterback’s fault.
I know I write almost every week about how incredible Mahomes is, but he is that good; he’s throwing underhanded touchdowns just for fun. He casually threw five touchdowns in Week 4, a 98th percentile performance in total EPA since 2010 per rbsdm.com. Mahomes has been the best quarterback in football since the day he took over the starting job. In fact, his QBR of 82.9 this year is not only the best in the league by a large margin (Stafford ranks 2nd with 76.6), it’s better than his 2018 MVP season (80.3).
Don’t get me wrong: Kansas City is far from flawless. I’ve said a few times that when you have an elite offense, you just need the defense to be competent. Yeah… the Chiefs don’t have one of those. They’ve got the league’s best offense and worst defense. We’ve seen their defense figure things out during the season before, so don’t give up on them yet.
On the other hand, are we sure they can’t just win three straight playoff games like 45-38? I’m sure as hell not counting out that possibility.
5. Contract Time for Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield
It’s extension season for the 2018 quarterback class. So far, only Josh Allen and the Bills have agreed to a long-term deal. Naturally, the Panthers want to see Sam Darnold play football sans Adam Gase before putting pen to paper, though they did accept his fifth-year option before the season. I’m not sure what’s taking so long for Josh Rosen’s offer sheet, though.
That leaves the first overall selection, Baker Mayfield, and the 32nd overall selection, Lamar Jackson. Either player could have signed an multi-year contract this offseason and few would’ve batted an eye, but both Cleveland and Baltimore have been hesitant for different reasons.
In Baltimore, Jackson appears to be negotiating his own extension. Bomani Jones has elaborated on that topic in a more eloquent and nuanced manner than I can, but the gist of the situation is that there’s not a lot of time to negotiate a contract when you’re busy playing quarterback for a professional football team. Jackson is a former MVP and is excelling this season despite a mediocre offensive line and woeful skill position talent around him; he will be worth any number the Ravens pay him.
On the other hand, Cleveland has been reluctant to hand Mayfield an extension and that hesitation was put on full display on Sunday. Mayfield struggled throughout the day, including missing Odell Beckham Jr. on a wide-open, game-sealing touchdown. Andrew Berry and co. saw their potential future on the opposing sideline, where the Minnesota Vikings have been bleeding talent each and every season since paying Kirk Cousins the big bucks.
Cleveland does not want to repeat the mistakes Los Angeles and Philadelphia made with their 2016 selections, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, respectively. The Browns appear to be waiting for Mayfield to prove he can lead the team deep into the postseason, which is the problem: That’s exactly why LA and Philly paid Goff and Wentz!
One could argue the Browns’ skepticism in Mayfield proves why they should not give him an expensive extension. Look, I love Mayfield’s personality and vibes and all that stuff. But in a conference with Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert, and in a division with Jackson, a game manager-plus isn’t going to cut it, let alone a game manager-plus with a hefty salary cap hit.
Both Cleveland and Baltimore sit at 3-1. Jackson has put the Ravens on his back while the Browns have, at times, won in spite of Mayfield. The AFC North race and what it means for Jackson’s and Mayfield’s bank accounts might be the number one narrative I’m watching the rest of the season.
6. Rookie QB Watch
Until Week 4, the only rookie quarterback with a win was Mac Jones, who beat fellow rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1. The obvious caveat needs to be said: They are rookies. This is going to take time, even for generational talents like Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence: The Jaguars lost 15 straight games to close last season. No matter how great Lawrence was at Clemson, he was not going to be able to elevate this team, especially with a rookie head coach in Urban Meyer (for now). Last Thursday, Lawrence flashed every skill that made him the singular quarterback prospect a half-decade ago. Be patient, Jags fans. He’s the real deal.
Wilson: The Jets are Jets’ing to the n’th degree this season. Through three weeks, Wilson was the worst quarterback in the NFL by a mile, losing 0.35 EPA/play per rbsdm.com. He rebounded a bit in Week 4, averaging .21 EPA/play (70th percentile, baby!) and led the Jets to an OT win over the punter-less Titans. He flashed his arm talent with a few ridiculous balls, but also threw a few classic head-scratchers. I had faith in Mike LaFleur to bring modern concepts to New York, but that hasn’t quite happened yet. So far, all we know about Wilson is that he is resilient; it takes perseverance to play as badly as he did through three weeks and come out the other side with confidence.
Lance: We’ve only seen Lance on a handful of goal-line plays and the second half of their Week 4 loss to Seattle. The 21-year-old has looked exactly how you’d expect a 2000-baby with immense physical abilities and minimal experience to look. He’ll break loose and convert a 4th-and-10 or hit Deebo Samuel for a 76-yard TD out of nowhere. The next play, he looks like a deer in headlights. There’s not much to add on Lance’s play because he really hasn’t played much. With Jimmy G likely sidelined for a few weeks, I’m ecstatic to see what Lance looks like in an offense game planned for him (and not just because my Trey Lance to start by SF’s bye week bet is miraculously going to hit.)
Fields: Matt Nagy ceded play-calling duties to Bill Lazor and suddenly Justin Fields looks like, well, Justin Fields. The 11th overall selection made a few spectacular throws against the Lions in Week 4 that Andy Dalton couldn’t make with a created player on Madden. Bears fans are already circling Kellen Moore, Joe Brady, and Brian Daboll like sharks in bloody water — and they should be. Fields is too good to waste under Nagy’s tutelage.
Jones: The former high school principal has been the most productive of the class thus far, at least in terms of EPA/play. There are two ways to look at that, and one’s viewpoint is likely entirely correlated with their prior beliefs of Jones. Those that loved him coming out of Alabama can point to the Patriots’ lack of receiving talent and an underperforming offensive line and make the case Jones is doing the most with the least. Those that were skeptical of the immobile pocket passer who played with first-round talent at every position in college can point to the Patriots coaching staff and argue Jones has been in the best position of the rookies.
I land somewhere in the middle — shocking, I know. Jones is a prototypical pocket passer who clearly has a refined knowledge of the game. But without any separative physical traits, I don’t know what NE’s ceiling is with him. Again, to win the AFC, you will have to get through Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and Herbert (and soon, maybe Lawrence); the Pats will need significant roster talent and coaching advantages to overcome Jones’ shortcomings. I’d rather tread water and take a swing on another first-rounder with a higher ceiling.
7. Sophomore QB Explosion
Here’s why you should be patient with the rookie QBs: The sophomores are ballin’. Joe Burrow’s Bengals and Justin Herbert’s Chargers each sit tied atop the AFC at 3-1. The former ranks fourth in the NFL in Ben Baldwin’s EPA+CPOE composite score; the latter has his luxurious flow back and outdueled Mahomes in Week 3 victory over the Chiefs.
Herbert’s rookie season was one of the greatest of all-time, so we expected something like this; Burrow, returning from a torn ACL, was a bit of a different story. The Bengals’ offseason was clouded in questions:
- Why did they draft Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell?
- Should they have kept Zac Taylor as head coach?
- Does Burrow have the arm strength to be an elite quarterback?
The Bengals Week 4 victory over Lawrence’s Jags wasn’t quite as stunning as their matchup in the 2019 college football national championship — when Burrow threw for 463 yards and 5 touchdowns while adding 58 yards and a score on the ground — but Burrow flashed maturity beyond his years.
Burrow’s path to stardom, and the Bengals path to contention, looks a lot like Thursday night. All of his skills from LSU — from accuracy and mobility, to poise and anticipation — have translated to the NFL. Every team in AFC North may have their franchise quarterback, which only makes whatever the hell Pittsburgh is doing all the more mystifying and, frankly, hilarious.
8. The NFC is More Open than Expected
Entering the season, I felt last year’s NFCCG participants were still the conference’s two best teams. The Buccaneers notably returned every starter from their championship squad and Aaron Rodgers returned to the Packers after… considering his options. While those teams sit at 3-1, it hasn’t been smooth sailing.
The Packers were annihilated by a not-very-good Saints team in Week 1 and have failed to put away any non-Lions opponent in their subsequent three victories. The Bucs edged the Cowboys in Week 1, then beat the Falcons in a game that was closer than the scoreboard would indicate. In Week 3, the Rams dismantled them. Now, there are plenty of excuses for their Week 4 performance — rain, emotions, injuries, etc. — but that’s kind of the point. The Bucs were the healthiest team in football last year; that wasn’t likely to happen again.
The Bucs and Packers are still two of the conference’s teams; winning games with at-times shaky play is the sign of a great team. However, the ascension of the aforementioned Cardinals and Cowboys, along with the Rams hitting close to their top-end projections (on offense at least) makes this conference much more competitive than many, including myself, anticipated.
9. Evaluating The Paper Tigers
Denver: After facing the easiest schedule in NFL history through three weeks — I’m still working to confirm — the Broncos fell to the Ravens in Week 4. It’s painfully clear this team is not on the level of the Chiefs and Chargers in the AFC West; regardless of Teddy Bridgewater’s advanced stats, I cannot in good conscience put him on that tier. I do think they are an objectively good team and one that can contend for a Wild Card berth, but they can’t afford to throw away many out-of-division contests. Mike Clay rates Denver’s rest-of-season schedule as the fifth-toughest. With injuries to Bridgewater and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos will need to show some #grit over the next few weeks.
Las Vegas: Much like Arizona, Las Vegas was largely ignored in AFC West discussions before the season. Derek Carr has been grooving, leading all quarterbacks with 1,399 passing yards. If this offense can sustain this level of production, the Raiders must be taken seriously in the AFC playoff picture. I’m skeptical, as evidenced by their loss to the Chargers on Monday Night.
Cincinnati: The Bengals wins have come against the Vikings, Steelers, and Jaguars — not exactly a gauntlet. They are also in one hell of a division. Bengals fans should focus on Burrow’s development and enjoy the ride for however long it lasts. Worry about contention of any sort next year.
Carolina: Add another name to the list of careers Adam Gase almost ruined. Joe Brady has molded Sam Darnold into Cam Newton, as he currently leads all players with five rushing touchdowns. His passing numbers — ya know, the thing he’s paid to do — are pedestrian, ranking 12th in EPA/play and 13th in CPOE. While slightly above average is a tremendous step in the right direction for Darnold, it’s in the danger zone for the Panthers. They already accepted his 5th year option for next season worth $18.9 million. Darnold’s production is worth that cap hit, but after 2022 I’m just not sure what the plan is. Does Carolina want to build around Darnold or is he a stopgap?
I’m getting ahead of myself. The Panthers are fast as hell and fun to watch. They have a ton of winnable games upcoming, with the Eagles, Vikings, Giants, Falcons and Patriots over their next five games. Carolina can make a serious push for a playoff spot if they capitalize on that opportunity.
10. Quarter-Season Awards
OPOY: Cooper Kupp — HM: Derrick Henry
DPOY: Myles Garrett — HM: Trevon Diggs
OROY: Ja’Marr Chase — HM: Javonte Williams
DROY: Asante Samuel Jr. — HM: Micah Parsons
Comeback: Dak Prescott — HM: Saquon Barkley
Coach: Brandon Staley, L.A. Chargers — HM: John Harbaugh, Baltimore
Asst. Coach: Joe Brady, Carolina — HM: Kellen Moore, Dallas
Executive: Les Snead, L.A. Rams — HM: Steve Keim, Arizona
11. Quarter-Season Superlatives
Breakout Star: DJ Moore
Off-the-Street Contributor: Cordarrelle Patterson
Hidden Star (late breakout): Darnell Mooney
Biggest Surprises: Las Vegas, Arizona
Biggest Disappointments: Pittsburgh, Minnesota
First Overall Pick: N.Y. Jets
Bold Predictions I don’t have the guts to pick: Arizona to miss the playoffs, Minnesota to make the playoffs, Buffalo to finish 15-2, Dallas to win the Super Bowl
12. New Playoff Predictions
AFC East: Buffalo (1-seed)
AFC North: Cleveland
AFC South: Indianapolis (Someone has to!)
AFC West: L.A. Chargers
AFC Wild Cards: Kansas City, Baltimore, Las Vegas
NFC East: Dallas (1-seed)
NFC North: Green Bay
NFC South: Tampa Bay
NFC West: L.A. Rams
NFC Wild Cards: Arizona, Carolina, Seattle
AFC CG: Kansas City vs. Buffalo
NFC CG: Dallas vs. L.A. Rams
Super Bowl: Kansas City vs. Dallas
SB Champ: Kansas City
13. Ranking 4-0 Teams
Last (and Shortest) Man Standing: Arizona
14. Ranking 0-4 Teams
The Lions: Detroit
Insert Urban Meyer Joke Here: Jacksonville
15. MVP Tracker
I just want to note that leaving Tom Brady off last week’s list was an egregious overreaction from Week 3 and I profusely apologize. Bill Belichick would say it’s better to be early than late, in which case I would be correct, unlike Belichick’s assessment of Brady.
- Kyler Murray
- Patrick Mahomes
- Dak Prescott
- Lamar Jackson
- Matthew Stafford